Over two years removed from left shoulder surgery and sporting newfound mechanical tweaks to his swing, Tampa Bay’s enigmatic speedster has entered camp with what seems to be a rejuvenated confidence.
Analysis: Fantasy owners have heard this before about Upton, and have been subsequently met with major disappointment. After a monster postseason in ’08 where he helped carry the young Rays to the World Series, it appeared that B.J. was ready to harness the bevy of tools he’d been teasing us with glimpses of since his debut as a 19-year-old in 2004. Unfortunately, surgery followed and so did a pair of underachieving campaigns which left a bad taste in the mouths of those who drafted him high. While Upton is always good for stolen bases (he’s averaged 43 over the past 3 years), doubles (38 in 2010), and some pop (18 HRs, 89 RBI last season), he has never managed to put the whole package together for a full stretch. It could be argued that he did this in 2007, compiling a slash line of .300/.386/.508 with 24 HR, 82 RBI, and 22 SB in just 129 games. For a talent such as his, however, we’ve always expected those numbers to get better and better as he got older. To date this hasn’t happened, but let’s not forget that he is still only 26 years old. If the former first-rounder is finally coming around from his 2008 surgery, and if the mechanical changes to his stroke are truly sound, we may finally see the B.J. Upton that Rays fans and his Fantasy owners have been impatiently waiting for.
Projection: Skepticism is abound when murmurs of a breakout year from B.J. Upton are heard. Nevertheless, I am a believer in Joe Maddon’s centerfielder in 2011. The combination of his revamped swing, new attitude, and fully healed shoulder along with the underrated veteran influence of Johnny Damon to his right make this the season where Upton finally puts it all together for 150+ games. Keep in mind that he also has Desmond Jennings nipping at his heels and could find himself fighting for a job if he doesn’t produce. Although this may sound like a familiar broken record from years past, my advice is to grab Upton while nobody is looking – as he’ll certainly fall to the middle rounds in H2H leagues. Roto owners won’t wait as long, because of the guarantee of 35+ stolen bags, so be aware. Call me crazy, but I predict that Upton tops his 2007 production and may even flirt with 30 and 100.
