Jeff Francis and Kevin Correia 2011 Outlook

Issue: Last season Jeff Francis and Kevin Correia both had ERAs greater than 5.00 and WHIPs higher than 1.48. Has the change in home ball parks for 2011 made them worthy of a $1 flier in Auction End Games?

Facts: Francis has spent 6 seasons in Colorado. In 2011 Jeff will be the #2 starting pitcher in KCR’s rotation. Correia has spent 8 seasons in The Show, first 6 with SFG and last 2 with SDP. Kevin will be the #3 starter in Pittsburgh this season.

Condensing each one’s career into a single season of stats looks like this:

Hurler	W		ERA		IP		HR		WHIP		HR/9		SO/9		SO/BB
Francis	13		4.77		201		25		1.429		1.1		6.1		2.1
Correia	7		4.57		150		18		1.441		1.1		6.6		1.84

 

The Park Factors are these:

	HR LHB		HR RHB		K LHB		K RHB
Correia(RHP)
SDP	59		95		107		110
Pitt	99		73		93		89
Francis(LHP)
COL	116		117		87		90
KCR	73		85		88		92

Analysis: This is a tale of home advantage going in opposite directions. Francis has been below the league average in K/9 which puts too many balls in play. He won’t get any material help in strikeouts in KCR, but those HR factors are so much better in KCR. Remember 100 = League Average. Correia has been right at or slightly above the league average for K/9. Pittsburgh will decrease those, especially with RH hitters. It also looks like Kevin will be a lot more vulnerable to homers by LH batters. Add to it that the Padres were one of the best defensive teams in 2010 while Pittsburgh was one of the worst.

We would stay away from Correia and consider Francis for a buck, while being nervous about his high career WHIP, but expecting it to come down. Keep in mind Correia has been healthy through out his career, while Francis has had shoulder problems 5 different times. Watch the Spring Training news for Jeff’s health.

Predictions:

Francis  12W  190IP  4.10ERA  105K  1.29WHIP

Correia   9W  172IP   4.60ERA  125K  1.43WHIP

{6-4-3 Assists to StatsCorner and Baseball-Reference.}