Derek Jeter had arguably the worst season of his career at the plate in 2010. His .270 batting average was 40 points below his career average, his 10 home runs tied for the fewest in a season, his slugging percentage was the lowest of his career, and he struck out the most times since 2005. His advanced metrics were down too. His BABIP was a career-low, as was his runs created per-game and line-drive percentage. He also led the league in outs created.
So it’s a great time to buy low on the New York Yankee captain.
Analysis: Jeter can still hit. His batting average from 2005-2009 was .322, 50 points better than 2010. If Girardi has any sense, he’ll lead off with Brett Gardner and let Jeter hit 2nd. Jeter has made an adjustment to his swing from last season which will hopefully help his strikeout numbers.
Beyond the top three shortstops (Ramirez, Tulowitzki, and Reyes), there are nothing but question marks. Jeter will hit atop baseball’s most potent lineup, and has all the skills to bounce back from a sub-par year.
What’s encouraging is Jeter’s contact percentage in 2010 was the same as his career average, but his BABIP was 50 points lower than his career average, meaning he was a victim of bad luck more than anything else. If his stats normalize to their career averages in 2011, Jeter should far exceed his 6th round draft status. He’s currently going for only $25 in auction drafts, and can easily outperform that value.
Projection: .311 / 14 home runs / 70 RBI’s / 22 steals / 110 runs scored
What do you think? Will Jeter bounce back from the worst season of his career? Or is he finally on the way down?