The Texas Rangers’ Derek Holland turned in his second straight quality start Sunday, vaulting the Rangers to an 8-1 start and improving Holland’s record to 2-0. His Sunday line was 6 innings, 5 hits, 2 walks, zero runs, and 6 strikeouts. For the season he’s gone 12 innings, allowed three runs and struck out 11. What’s most impressive is his reduced walk rate, which is 2.25/9 IP, down from his career average of 3.28, down a full walk every 9 innings.
Holland has always been a high-strikeout pitcher, averaging 7.5/9 IP for his 200+ innings of major league pitching. His minor league strikeout rate was 9.5/9 IP, so it’s no surprise his strikeouts have transitioned well to the major leagues.
He came into the 2011 season a wild-card on draft day, as he wasn’t announced as a starter until about a week before the season started. He went mostly undrafted, but is already paying returns for those who did pick him up.
Analysis: Holland throws too many pitches (215 through 12 innings), and what’s dis-concerning is his in-game trends of how he reaches those high pitch counts . Here’s what I mean by that:
Against Seattle: 3 of 6 leadoff hitters reached, only one 1-2-3 inning
Against Baltimore: All five hits and 2 walks against came with two outs, only one 1-2-3 inning.
The Mariners and Orioles are not elite offensive teams, and Holland has gotten away with making mistakes. His next start is against the Yankees, which owns 13 runs, 20 hits, and 5 home runs in 12.1 career innings. He also is slated to pitch against CC Sabathia, who is 8-3 in his career against Texas.
However, Holland’s three starts after that come against Kansas City, Toronto, and Oakland, all of which are very favorable towards the Rangers’ southpaw.
Recommendation: Pick up Holland now and stash him on your bench for the Yankee game next Saturday. The Yankees have too many good, patient hitters who can annihilate Holland’s mistakes. It would not be surprising if he only lasted four or so innings. The following three starts you should absolutely start him, as the potential of three wins and 20 strikeouts is a strong possibility.