Derek Jeter is hitting .348 with 5 HR and 3 SB this year. On the surface this appears to be a great line, however, these numbers are a bit inflated.
Analysis: Jeter’s five home runs is perhaps the biggest surprise considering he only hit six bombs in 131 games last year. Jeter’s HR/FB rate is at 21.7% this year, a career high and 9.2% above his career average. His home run total should not be above eleven or twelve by season’s end. Let’s move on to his .348 batting average. Jeter’s BABIP is over .370 this year and about twenty points above his career average. We also have to take into account that as the season wears on the thirty-seven year old, his stolen base numbers will start to taper off. Eleven and not eighteen steals is what Jeter will wind up with. His stolen base totals have declined in each of the last two years and he’s only stolen more than twenty bags once over the past five years.
Jeter’s run total is his true strength outside of his batting average and that run total will be there for you at the end of the season, but 14 HR or 14 SB will not. Regardless of his inflated stats, his name alone should be enough to sell high on.