Dylan Stephenson

Kevin Love is Having a Breakout Fantasy Season

Kevin Love has been absolutely fantastic this season, defying any and all expectations.

Analysis: The Minnesota Timberwolves are 15-47, an absolutely horrible number, but who cares because we’re playing fantasy sports, where wins don’t matter and good numbers on a bad team are actually a good thing. Kevin Love is having a historically great season and it seems to be a sign of things to come. He could be the first players since Moses Malone to average over 15 boards and 20 points a game. He has a nose for the boards and this benefits a lot more than his rebounding numbers. Despite playing on a Minnesota team with lousy point guards Love is still averaging over 20 points a game this season. This is in great part due to his rebounding ability. If Johnny Flynn can’t find Love down low, Love can still grab the offensive board and score some points with a put back. Imagine if he ever landed with an elite point guard, he would be fantasy gold at that point. If Love and Nash ever join forces that would be one potent combination. Love does a few things really well: he scores, he boards, and shoots the three ball efficiently and this has made him a hot topic among other players. Even Lebron James discussed how sad it was to see such a great player in Kevin Love, wasting away on a bad team. He stated this with the obvious implication that he would love Love to take his talents to South Beach.

Projection: If you need what Kevin Love is offering (boards, points, and made 3s) then don’t hesitate to make a trade for him, because he’s not slowing down anytime soon. Just be wary that despite being a power forward Love only shoots 47% from the field, and averages less than half a block a game. His other stats more than make up for the lack of blocking, but it is something to be mindful of before making a move for Love.

The Enigmatic Andrea Bargnani

With Chris Bosh out of TO, the Raptors expected/needed Andrea Bargnani to step up his game significantly.

Analysis: Andrea has increased productivity in a few areas, but has overwhelmingly been a disappointment. His team is losing and his stats have declined in a few categories that kill any benefit that his increased scoring brings. For example Andrea is averaging half the blocks he produced last season (down from 1.4 to .7 this season), and his FG% is down to 45% too. I’ve actually watched a number of Raptors games this season and I think they are becoming more comfortable with one another. While it is blatantly obvious by now that Andrea can’t rebound to save his life, I think as he grows in comfort with these new look Raptors he will continue to improve. He is a good player on a terrible team and his stats will be noticeably inflated because of this. Not necessarily a bad thing for fantasy owners of Andrea.

Projection: Andrea will improve slightly over the remainder of the season and is a good fantasy option for 3s, points, and FT%. For a former number 1 pick it is fair to have expected more from him, but he provides enough big scoring games to keep fantasy owners, at the very least, satisfied. He’s scored 30+ points seven times this season, even putting up 41 points versus the Knicks.

There is Very Little Hope Left for Gilbert Arenas

Gilbert Arenas used to be a perennial All-Star and one of the NBA’s best scorers, now he is having a hard time cracking Orlando’s rotation.

Analysis: I really thought a change of scenery would be good for Gilbert and he could at least be a passable fantasy option. After a horrible injury stretch the last few years and a minor incident with some guns, Gilbert has been what some might classify as an unpredictable fantasy option. He has still been okay in spurts, but injuries continue to derail any progress he makes. He is currently out with a strained knee, not very surprising. Coming off the bench for Orlando I thought Gilbert would get a chance to be an impact player, playing limited minutes. Providing a scoring punch, tossing out a few dimes, and knocking down a trey or two a game would have made Gilbert a worthwhile fantasy option, however that has not been the case, he’s averaging 8 points a game on 35% shooting and 26% shooting from downtown. With Gilbert approaching 30 years of age the cause for concern only increases further. In his past 3 seasons combined before this one Gilbert played in only 47 games. This is the single worst factor for fantasy players, because even if he could produce, which he doesn’t do very well anymore, he can’t stay on the floor.

Projection: Gilbert will never return to his old scoring ways that made him a fantasy darling. The only reason that picking up Gilbert is justifiable is if he’s on a hot streak. It feels like ages ago, but in back to back seasons Gilbert did average close to 30 points. If he catches fire pick him up off the waiver wire, but he is no longer deserving of a fantasy roster spot.

Brook Lopez Will Benefit From Having an Elite Point Guard

Brook Lopez seemingly took a step backwards this season and disappointed a great collection of fantasy basketball players.

Analysis: The most shocking aspect of Brook’s season thus far has been his horrible lack of rebounding. After averaging 9 boards a game in his sophomore season Brook hasn’t even been averaging 6 boards a game this season. To put that in perspective, he is only averaging .2 boards a game more than one of the worst rebounding centers in NBA history, Andrea Bargnani. For a player who rebounded so well his first two seasons this has been incredibly disappointing. Worse still his FG% has gone steadily declined each season, from 53%, to 50%, and finally to 47% this season. His assists have gone from 2.3 last season to 1.4 this season, and he has also had a minor drop off in blocks too. The only positive is that he is averaging a 1/2 point more this season. Little consolation for fantasy owners when he has dropped off in every other category. Brook has been in a losing environment for what will be his third consecutive year, his stats indicate that he is just not as passionate as he once was. He’s not hustling as hard for boards, nor working as hard for blocks.

Projection: Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov has finally added a star piece in Deron Williams to give Brook a little more support. Brook will start to his improve numbers across the board because he will finally have a reason for playing again. He’s going to find how much easier the game is when you have one of the best point guards in the league setting you up. Since the trade Brook has shot over 50% in both games, rebounded far better than his season averages, and reached the 20 point threshold both times. These are all good signs for Lopez and his fantasy numbers will make further jumps the more comfortable he gets with Deron Williams.

Can Devin Harris Put Up All-Star Numbers On A Good Team?

Devin Harris had a great 2008-2009 campaign with the Nets which earned him a trip to the all-star game, but he hasn’t played at that level since.

Analysis: Devin has a chance to play for a winning team for the first time since he was shipped out of Dallas in the 2007-2008 season. I think he’ll make the most out of the opportunity and enjoy actually having a decent shot at winning on any given night. Devin now has some great teammates in Utah who will make it easier to pick up more assists. Harris’ first two games with Utah were nothing to write home about, but he produced reasonable enough stat lines. Since Devin left the structured environment of Dallas’s system his field goal percentage has gone down significantly. In his last year with Dallas he shot 48%, but in his next three years with New Jersey he never shot above 44%. With the Nets I believe, and the statistics prove my point, that Devin attempted to do too much. While still effective, he forced his shots more because his team relied heavily on him. Now that Devin is back on a good team with a well structured system and established roles he should become far more efficient. Devin Harris is only 28 and his decline shouldn’t start for another few seasons.

Projection: Devin will enjoy being competitive again, and will appreciate it more this time ’round after being stuck in New Jersey for 3 seasons. His field goal percentage should return closer to the 50% mark, and I believe he’s poised to make a gain in assists as well. Even before the switch Devin was averaging a career high 7.6 assists, and playing in Utah should only elevate this statistic more. It is a small sample size, but in two games with the Jazz, Devin is averaging a solid 8.5 assists.