Author: Scott Orgera

Scott has been covering several major sports for almost 20 years in multiple capacities including statistician, datacaster, and reporter. He has covered well over 1,000 MLB games from the press boxes of various venues including Yankee Stadium, Shea Stadium, Citi Field, and Fenway Park. Scott has also provided live NFL statistics from Giants Stadium (now the New Meadowlands Stadium) for both the Giants and Jets for several seasons. He has recently begun providing official statistics for NCAA Basketball television broadcasts. Scott is also an IT Team Lead for a major telecommunications company, in addition to being a technical reporter for a well known news outlet.

Rumors of Alfredo Simon Release Are Premature

Rumors had been circulating earlier in the week that Baltimore reliever Alfredo Simon would be released from a Dominican Republic jail within the next 7-10 days, allowing him to participate in spring training and be a part of the Orioles bullpen come Opening Day. Simon, charged with manslaughter in a fatal New Year’s Eve shooting, has been held without bail since January 3. However, city prosecutor Victor Mueses told ESPNDeportes’ Enrique Rojas that Simon will remain behind bars and that they have “strong evidence to incriminate him in this bloody event.”

Analysis: The 6’4 righty, who saved 17 games for a beleaguered O’s pen in 2010, was placed on the team’s Restricted List this past Friday. The stories of his potential release spread quickly, and a level of optimism surfaced among the team as well as the Baltimore faithful. Unfortunately for Simon, these rumors appear to have lacked validity and his future in professional baseball is once again in question. Hopefully this situation is rectified in a timely fashion, and justice is served one way or another.

Projection: Expected to compete for a late-inning role this spring, it now looks as if Simon will be a non-factor for the fans at Camden as well as Fantasy owners. If the newly acquired Kevin Gregg becomes Buck Showalter’s choice to close out games, this most likely leaves the setup man competition between Mike Gonzalez and Koji Uehara. Although the team was high on Simon’s arm and was looking forward to his progression, this new development is certainly not a crushing blow to a roster that has been restocked and should make some noise – even in the AL East. Maintain a watchful eye on how the 8th and 9th inning spots shake out on Buck’s list throughout camp, but scratch Simon’s name off of your depth charts.

Which B.J. Upton Will We See This Season?

Over two years removed from left shoulder surgery and sporting newfound mechanical tweaks to his swing, Tampa Bay’s enigmatic speedster has entered camp with what seems to be a rejuvenated confidence.

Analysis: Fantasy owners have heard this before about Upton, and have been subsequently met with major disappointment. After a monster postseason in ’08 where he helped carry the young Rays to the World Series, it appeared that B.J. was ready to harness the bevy of tools he’d been teasing us with glimpses of since his debut as a 19-year-old in 2004. Unfortunately, surgery followed and so did a pair of underachieving campaigns which left a bad taste in the mouths of those who drafted him high. While Upton is always good for stolen bases (he’s averaged 43 over the past 3 years), doubles (38 in 2010), and some pop (18 HRs, 89 RBI last season), he has never managed to put the whole package together for a full stretch. It could be argued that he did this in 2007, compiling a slash line of .300/.386/.508 with 24 HR, 82 RBI, and 22 SB in just 129 games. For a talent such as his, however, we’ve always expected those numbers to get better and better as he got older. To date this hasn’t happened, but let’s not forget that he is still only 26 years old. If the former first-rounder is finally coming around from his 2008 surgery, and if the mechanical changes to his stroke are truly sound, we may finally see the B.J. Upton that Rays fans and his Fantasy owners have been impatiently waiting for.

Projection: Skepticism is abound when murmurs of a breakout year from B.J. Upton are heard. Nevertheless, I am a believer in Joe Maddon’s centerfielder in 2011. The combination of his revamped swing, new attitude, and fully healed shoulder along with the underrated veteran influence of Johnny Damon to his right make this the season where Upton finally puts it all together for 150+ games. Keep in mind that he also has Desmond Jennings nipping at his heels and could find himself fighting for a job if he doesn’t produce. Although this may sound like a familiar broken record from years past, my advice is to grab Upton while nobody is looking – as he’ll certainly fall to the middle rounds in H2H leagues. Roto owners won’t wait as long, because of the guarantee of 35+ stolen bags, so be aware. Call me crazy, but I predict that Upton tops his 2007 production and may even flirt with 30 and 100.

Will Justin Morneau Start 2011 on the Disabled List?

The Twins burly first baseman reported to camp this morning, still dealing with prolonged issues from a concussion suffered last July.

Analysis: A former MVP and feared power threat, Morneau hit the Disabled List on July 7 after his head and the knee of Toronto’s John McDonald made dangerous contact while attempting to prevent a double play. Over seven months later some symptoms still remain, leaving his availability for Opening Day up in the air. At the time of his injury Morneau was on pace for one of his best seasons yet, hitting .345 with 18 home runs in 81 games. However, the days and weeks following that fateful day have been a tough road for Justin, who has reportedly run the gamut of concussion symptoms since. Early reports out of Twins camp are that Morneau plans to participate in a regular training schedule but that he will miss at least the first four games of the team’s Grapefruit League schedule.

Projection: Trying to predict a timetable when concussions are involved is almost an impossibility. Add that to the fact that this was Morneau’s third concussion (one as a child, one in 2005 after being hit in the head with a Ron Villone pitch) and you’re entering very choppy waters. Personally, Morneau has been a perennial keeper in my H2H league since 2006. I’ve decided, after much trepidation, that I have to cut him loose this season. Although the obvious potential to produce is there, I don’t think that the possibility of lost time is worth the risk at a position where several prominent alternatives exist.  He is definitely someone to keep a close eye on in the coming weeks.

Brandon Webb Yet to Throw Off Mound

The Rangers are being very careful with righty Brandon Webb, restricting him to long toss every three days until his arm strength is at a sufficient level.

Analysis: The 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner has not pitched in a big league game since April of 2009, and his rehabilitation from shoulder surgery has been an arduous process. Because of this, noone should be surprised that Texas is handling Webb with kid gloves. It should not be a shocker either that pitching coach Mike Maddux has stated that Brandon may not be on the active roster come Opening Day against Boston. With the offseason loss of Cliff Lee, the Rangers are depending on Webb to give them a respectable number of starts this year. The last thing they’re going to do is rush him along.

Projection: Although this news should not be unexpected for someone who hasn’t seen a Major League mound in almost two full years, it is still disheartening to Fantasy owners who have their eye on Webb. Aside from mild soreness, he said that he feels fine following his long toss sessions thus far in camp. This is a good sign, but until Webb faces live hitters it is tough to speculate where he really is. His surgery was serious, but so were his numbers prior to being shelved. A 22-game winner in his last full season, Webb averaged 33 starts a year between 2003-08, twice leading the NL in games started. The three time All-Star also finished runner-up in Cy Young voting the following two seasons after he took the award home. Before surgery, Webb was one of the best pitchers in the game on a consistent basis. The Rangers would be happy with him being half the man he used to be, and Fantasy owners looking for a bargain are doing the same. In a well-informed league, Webb will be far from a sleeper pick. However, because of the obvious risk involved, he may not hit the board for a while. Monitor his progress throughout the next several weeks, and keep his name in your back pocket in the meantime.

What Does Playing In Boston Mean For Adrian Gonzalez?

From a Fantasy perspective the contrasts between the NL West and the AL East, as well as those between spacious PETCO Park and the lefty-friendly Fens, make the Adrian Gonzalez move one of the most intriguing in recent years.

Analysis: The automatic assumption is that moving from a pitcher’s park to a place where talented lefties seem to pepper balls off of the Green Monster at will means a significant spike in Gonzalez’s slash line. After crunching the numbers and going over the evidence, I cannot argue with that premise. Most detractors to this theory pull out the “AL East argument” right away and, although A-Gone will be up against some pretty tough opponents in his new division, the NL West has sported some of the best arms in the game as of late. Keep in mind that Gonzalez has also spent the majority of his career in lineups that were nothing short of offensively anemic. Now surrounded by an impressive cast of characters and playing in front of one of the most passionate fan bases in all of baseball, Adrian is poised to take Beantown by storm.

Projection: All signs are positive for A-Gone in Boston. He may get off to a slow start in Spring Training, as he is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. However, everyone in Boston (including Gonzalez) has been exuding confidence that he’ll be ready for Opening Day. He may also be the center of attention for a few more weeks for contract-related issues, but a multi-year extension seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. All that aside, Adrian and the Red Sox seem like the perfect marriage for Fantasy owners. He may lose a few line drive home runs due to the height of The Monstah, but those can be made up by taking advantage of some of Fenway’s other cozy dimensions. Besides, those lasers off of the wall will just pad his doubles total even more. Take into consideration that 107 of his 168 career dingers have come on the road, and it becomes evident that a change of home venue instantly puts Gonzalez in perennial MVP contention. Look for 40+ home runs, 125+ RBI, and an OBP in the .415-.430 range this season. This is a player with the potential to produce like a top 5 pick, but may be obtainable somewhere within the 10th-15th pick range in some leagues.