Author: TJ Streett

Selling High- Gordon Beckham

Fantasy owners have been waiting forever for Gordon Beckham to produce. So far this year he has but can he keep it up?

Analysis: Beckham is the 6th rated fantasy second baseman over the last month of the season. Through 44 games this year he is hitting .335 but don’t expect that going forward. Beckham’s .383 BABIP is 12th in baseball among batters with at least 100 plate appearances. To contrast- his career BABIP is .286 while his career batting average is just .252.

Beckham is available in 40-50% of fantasy leagues as his stock continues to rise at the second base position. His main asset thus far has been his batting average but it will be painfully pedestrian the rest of the season. Furthermore, Beckham only has two home runs this year and his .108 isolated power is 35th among major league second baseman(min. 100 PA). Again, that’s 35th among second baseman. Beckham’s 3.6% walk rate is also not doing him any favors.

He may be the hottest second baseman on the wire but there are better options out there. The smart play here is to sell and to sell high.

Lucroy vs. Montero

Over the last month Jonathan Lucroy and Miguel Montero have put up top 10 numbers at the catcher position but which one is a better option?

Analysis: Jonathan Lucroy already has 13 home runs this year which is a career high. His HR/FB rate is up just a bit but nothing that indicates his power will significantly drop off in the second half. His batting average, walk rate and strikeouts are all around his career levels so we are seeing the real deal here. Lucroy has been hitting third or fourth in the Brewer’s lineup lately and as a result his 52 RBI is second in all of baseball this year among catchers. Lucroy is the sixth rated catcher thus far and expect top ten(ish) numbers going forward. He is available in 10-20% of fantasy leagues.

Miguel Montero is an interesting case. He struggled the first two months of the season and has not put up top twenty fantasy catcher numbers. Montero’s BABIP is .044 points below his career average this year which is why his batting average is just .224. Montero has averaged 16.5 home runs and 87 RBI over the last two years so he is capable of turning it around. Montero is a top fifteen catcher going forward but he’s hitting sixth or seventh in the D-Backs’ order which hurts his fantasy value.

Selling High- Marlon Byrd

Marlon Byrd is one of the hottest outfielders on the wire at the moment.

Analysis: Byrd has 15 home runs which is the 12th most in the National League this year but don’t count on his power going forward. Byrd has only hit more than 15 home runs in a season just once in his twelve year career. His career HR/FB rate is 9.1% yet it has skyrocketed to 19.7% this year. Byrd’s 51 runs batted in rank 16th in the National League but aside from his power numbers he isn’t contributing in other fantasy categories. His average is just .271 and he’s striking out at a career high 28% clip.

Marlon Byrd is currently available in 40-60% of fantasy leagues. He does have 3 home runs, 11 RBI and 8 runs over his last ten games which is why he is hot on the wire. Obviously his stock is on the rise but his power numbers will start to taper off soon. If you’re in to cashing out when value is maxed then it’s time to sell Marlon Byrd before his power numbers take a hit. All signs point to selling and selling now.

Power Bats- Morales

Kendrys Morales is one of the few remaining power bats available on the wire.

Analysis: Over the last ten games Morales has 4 home runs, 10 RBI, 8 runs and 13 hits. His batting average is now up to .279 which is about what his career average is. He is currently the 16th rated fantasy first baseman this year and his 13 home runs rank 12th among major league first baseman. He is 5th among designated hitters in home runs and runs batted in, 2nd in hits and 4th in batting average. He is a versatile fantasy asset but he is constantly overlooked.

Morales is available in 20-30% of fantasy leagues and he has a solid history to back him up. Morales hit 34 bombs in 2009 and had 22 last year in 522 plate appearances. You also have to like where he is right now in the Seattle batting order- cleaning up. He’s on pace for over 90 RBI yet Atlanta’s Chris Johnson is the hot commodity on the wire right now. Chris Johnson has 6 home runs and only 30 RBI in 74 games played this year. Johnson’s unsustainable .414 BABIP leads all of baseball. To put it in perspective- Miguel Cabrera’s career BABIP is .347.

Buying Low- Alcides Escobar

Alcides Escobar is struggling at the plate this year after posting a top seven fantasy year at shortstop in 2012.

Analysis: Alcides is only hitting .246 this year after hitting .293 in 2012. His career average sits at .263 so there is room for substantial improvement going forward. Escobar’s BABIP this year is down .025 points from his career average so we should expect his batting average to rise. Even with his batting average in the gutter and his stolen bases below expectation Alcides is still the 15th rated roto shortstop this year.

Escobar has averaged 30.5 stolen bases per season over the last two years, so the 12 he has thus far is a bit disappointing. The lack of steals is directly impacted by his lower batting average which equates to fewer stolen base opportunities. The steals will rise when his BABIP comes up around his career mark(which it should). Keep in mind that Kansas City is only five behind Detroit in the loss column in the AL Central so we may see a more aggressive KC team in the second half.

Alcides Escobar is available in 30-40% of fantasy leagues.