Author: TJ Streett

Value Picks- Nikolai Kulemin

After a 30 goal, 57 point season in 2010-11, Nikolai Kulemin posted just 7 goals and 28 points last year. Kulemin was obviously a huge fantasy disappointment last season which means he’s a draft day steal for many fantasy owners this year.

Analysis: It appears that Kulemin’s game is back on track. He has 38 points in 36 KHL games this year which is seventh best in the league ahead of guys like Datsyuk, Zherdev and Frolov. The most important takeaway here is that next to nothing is expected from Kulemin this year and his ADP will be incredibly low for a twenty-six year old who is only one year removed from a 30 goal season. Some sites are only projecting Kulemin to score 13-15 goals this year in a full 82 game season… big mistake. He may score 13-15 goals in the 48 game shortened season with his talent and the way he has been playing in Russia recently.

Keep in mind that Kulemin’s shooting percentage(6.5%) had a huge impact on his disappointing 2011-12 campaign. His career shooting percentage is north of 12% and has been at least 11% in three of his four NHL seasons. The twenty-six year old winger is entering his prime and he makes one hell of a fantasy sleeper this year(and he may even go undrafted).

Value Picks- Jordan Staal

Jordan Staal will no longer be playing in the shadows of Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby as he enters his first year with the Carolina Hurricanes.

Analysis: Staal’s biggest fantasy problem with the Pens was that he is an elite two-way center on a team with elite offensive centers. He did not see much time on the top power play unit during his six years in Pittsburgh but that changes with his arrival in Carolina. Jordan should be paired with his brother Eric on Carolina’s first line(unless the Ruutu injury changes things) which will translate into more time on ice and more power play opportunities this season. Another negative(in terms of fantasy numbers) is that Jordan Staal was the top center on Pittsburgh’s penalty killing unit, but in Carolina his minutes on the penalty kill will decrease a bit.

Jordan Staal will continue to be solid in the goals and plus/minus departments but playing with an elite forward like Eric he will see a boost in his assist total this year. Jordan has yet to post a single 30 assist season but he just may come close this year in a significantly shortened season. In addition to the assists expect a big increase in his shot total and power play points which will make him a legit top twenty fantasy center.

Value Picks- Victor Hedman

With the NHL lockout finally over it’s time to take a look at some key players on the verge of big seasons.

Analysis: Victor Hedman is now twenty-two years old and has yet to perform up to his second overall pick status. But if we take a look at what Hedman has done over the past year and a half we can clearly see his play is improving. Last year Hedman only put up 23 points but he did so in just 61 games. Had he played a full 82 game season Hedman would have posted 31 points which would not have been bad for a then twenty-one year old defenseman who was also 39th in time on ice last year among defenseman.

Fast forward to this season in the KHL and we have ourselves a rising star. Hedman is 10th in the KHL in points among defenseman despite playing at least ten fewer games than all nine players in front of him. He’ll return to a Tampa squad that was 8th in goals last year and upgraded their goaltending situation in the offseason. ESPN has Hedman as the 55th best defenseman this year behind Dmitry Kulikov(also a rising D-man) who is 39th in ESPN’s rankings. Kulikov is 103rd among KHL defenseman this year with 6 points in 22 games. If these awful rankings stick(one has to think ESPN will copy more informed experts at some point) Hedman is one of the big draft day value picks.

Under The Radar- Bradley Beal

Bradley Beal has been a top twenty shooting guard over the past two weeks but he continues to fly under the fantasy radar.

Analysis: Bradley Beal has averaged 17.0 PPG, 1.6 3PM, 1.0 SPG and 3.6 RPG over his last five games. Beal may not have been a sexy pick for Washington at the number three spot but he is producing well at the NBA level at only nineteen years of age. He’s taken a minimum of 12 shots in each of his last five games all while averaging well over thirty minutes per game. What’s not to like? He’s contributing well in four fantasy categories(3PM, PPG, FT%, SPG) and he’s also throwing in some blocks and assists from the shooting guard position as of the last few weeks.

Beal’s field goal percentage sits at 36% for the year and at 41% over his last five games. This problem should solve itself when Mr. John Wall returns to action for the Wiz. Wall’s career 8.2 APG will most certainly help Bradley Beal out in the points and field goal percentage departments. Beal will start hitting more threes and at a higher percentage and then Beal will no longer be under the radar. At the moment Beal is available in well over seventy percent of fantasy leagues.

Blocks And Boards- Okafor

Emeka Okafor is once again rebounding at an elite level as the fantasy world takes notice.

Analysis: Emeka Okafor is averaging 12.1 RPG with 2.4 BPG over his last five games. Yes, his minutes are around the thirty minute mark in this span but his play has improved considerably as well. He will always hurt you at the line with a 62% average this year but he only gets to the line twice per game. But unlike a Reggie Evans(3.1 PPG) or a Bismack Biyombo(4.8 PPG) he won’t kill you in the points department. Okafor only averages 7.6 points per game this season but he is averaging 10.4 points per game over his last five games which is a step in the right direction.

December was a fine month from the UConn product which saw him average 7.9 boards, 1.3 blocks and average 49.5% from the field. With each passing month this year his minutes are increasing and so is his fantasy production. He still remains a lower tier fantasy center but if he continues to receive nearly thirty minutes per game he will rebound and block shots at a more than serviceable rate.