Author: TJ Streett

Buying Low- Cliff Lee

Despite Cliff Lee’s 3.98 earned run average he is still the same dominant lefty that he has been in the past.

Analysis: Cliff Lee still has all the elite stats to indicate that he is still an ace with the exception of ERA and wins. Lee is sporting a 3.00 FIP, a 3.06 xFIP and a 1.19 WHIP(27th best in MLB). Lee’s 9.06K/9IP is eleventh best in the bigs this year. Even Cliff Lee’s velocity is virtually identical to his numbers last year. Cliff Lee still has lethal, dominating stuff… period.

What has not been going right for Lee is very simple. Lee’s run support has been awful but with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back in the mix the Phils will produce offensively once again. We must also consider Lee’s BABIP against is 34 points above his career average this year. It may not seem like much but those extra base runners add up. Now is the perfect time to buy Cliff Lee- when his value may not be that of an ace in many fantasy leagues. He is still the same old Cliff Lee and he has the stuff and all the stats to back it up.

Selling High- Carlos Ruiz

Carlos Ruiz is the best fantasy catcher thus far this season but things should be turning for him sooner than later.

Analysis: A catcher with a .349 batting average and 13 bombs before the All-Star break has to be named Joe Mauer, right? Wrong, that line belongs to lifetime .275 hitter Carlos Ruiz. This is definitely Ruiz’s career year, he has already broken his previous career high of nine home runs by four bombs and we aren’t even at the break yet. But, if we dig a little deeper we can see where his numbers should be at season’s end.

Ruiz’s BABIP this year is 63 points higher than his career average, resulting in the super inflated .349 batting average. His HR/FB rate of 19.4% this year is a career high while his career average HR/FB rate rests at 7.6%. To put it in perspective, Ruiz’s HR/FB rate this year is higher than Miguel Cabrera’s career average of 18.3%. With guys like Wilin Rosario and Jarrod Saltalamacchia available in many leagues nationwide it just may be the smart play here to flip the red hot catcher for a team need. Expect 2009-2011 Carlos Ruiz type numbers from here on out.

Speed Help- Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez is finally getting some consistent playing time in the Brewer outfield and he is making the most of it.

Analysis: Carlos Gomez has eleven stolen bases this year, which is as much as Ichiro has but in 190 less at-bats. Gomez’s power seems to be peaking as well, his five home runs is just three bombs short of his career high while his .193 isolated power is a career high. Gomez has cut down on the strikeouts(down 5% from last year) which was always one of his biggest weaknesses. He possesses a power/speed combo that is vastly underrated because of where he plays and the limited playing time he saw earlier in the year.

Carlos Gomez is finally coming in to his own at twenty-six years old in the Brewer lead off spot. He’s slugging 70 points higher this year over his career average and his speed is still deadly. Gomez is widely available in fantasy leagues and has gone under the radar over the past few weeks. If he keeps getting consistent at-bats he will become a must own in all fantasy leagues. Gomez already has three stolen bases this month and there is certainly more to come.

Selling High- Roy Oswalt

Roy Oswalt may have two wins under his belt with the Texas Rangers but there are causes for concern.

Analysis: Lost in the mid season comeback for the veteran is the fact he has yet to face American League batters on a consistent basis. It’s one thing to dominate the National League in your prime but it is an entirely different animal against the AL at thirty-four years old on the decline.

There are positives here, Oswalt K’d 12 batters in 12.1 innings pitched while only walking three batters in the process. Obviously the two wins are huge and he will continue to get solid run support from that powerful Texas lineup. However, there are a few reasons to be concerned. Oswalt’s fastball just has not been the same over the past year plus, resulting in a career low 6.02 K/9 last year with the Phils. Oswalt also allowed twenty-two hits in those two starts giving him a 1.97 WHIP for the time being.

I’m not saying Roy Oswalt is washed up by any means… he will produce this year, but fantasy baseball success is about capitalizing on hype and there is no shortage of hype regarding the righty. It’s time to sell high before owners catch on that he’s just a 3.9 ERA type of starter these days.

Buying Low- Gavin Floyd

Gavin Floyd allowed four earned runs against the New York Yankees Sunday in 5.1 innings of work.

Analysis: While it was not Gavin Floyd’s best performance, he has been pitching well as of late. In his two starts prior to the Yankee beating, Floyd’s line was- 2 wins, 0 earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched with 13 strikeouts. We know that Floyd has never been a low ERA type of starter but his 3.92 xFIP does indicate that his 4.91 ERA is much too high.

What Floyd does offer is strikeouts and plenty of them. Floyd’s 88 K’s are thirty-fifth in all of baseball and his 1.32 WHIP is good for fifty-eighth in the bigs this year. His 3.54 K/BB rate is better than Jordan Zimmerman, Mat Latos, Gio Gonzalez and David Price’s K/BB rate. If Gavin can keep the ball in the park he is one deadly lower tier fantasy starter. He doesn’t walk hitters, he strikes out 8.5 batters per nine and his solid WHIP is near his career average. Floyd is available in about half of fantasy leagues and he definitely makes a great buy low option at this point in the season. There are tons of injuries out there and making smart decisions while some of your studs heal is imperative.