Category: MLB

No Love For Cole?

Gerrit Cole is nine starts into his young career and he has yet to disappoint.

Analysis: Through nine starts Cole has put up a 3.56 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Cole’s 1.13 WHIP is better than some of the bigger names out there like Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, RA Dickey and Cole Hamels. His 3.65 xFIP certainly indicates that his numbers are the real deal. He is getting by throwing his fastball 70% of the time which is 18th highest in baseball(min 50 IP). Cole’s average fastball velocity is 95.9 MPH which is 3rd highest in the bigs(min 50 IP) but his change and slider are plus pitches as well.

Gerrit Cole is currently available in 15-40% of fantasy leagues. His ERA and WHIP may bump up a bit but they will certainly be an asset in roto leagues. His strikeout rate is only 5.9 K/9 IP but it is still respectable and projected to increase. Keep in mind that Cole has yet to give up more than three earned runs or three walks in all nine of his starts this year. The future is bright for the twenty-two year old and it’s time for everyone to start showing Gerrit Cole some love.

Buying Low- Juan Nicasio

Juan Nicasio is having a great month yet the fantasy world is not taking notice.

Analysis: In three starts this month Nicasio has pitched 19.0 innings and has only allowed 1 earned run on 8 hits. He’s only walked 4 batters this month but that should not come as a surprise since the twenty-six year old has never had any major command issues. He’s the 29th rated fantasy starter in July yet guys like Alex Wood and Dan Straily get all the attention on the wire among lower tier pitchers.

Currently Juan Nicasio is available in 90-95% of fantasy leagues. His next scheduled start is in Atlanta on Tuesday. Keep in mind that Nicasio is not a high strikeout starter but he has averaged 6.3 K/9 this year which is respectable. He had an 8.3 K/9 clip going for him in 2012 through eleven starts. The upside is there especially with his ability to limit base runners despite having an ERA north of 4.00 at the moment. Jon Lester, Tim Lincecum, Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander all have a higher WHIP than Nicasio’s 1.31 this year. One more great start and the fantasy world will have to take notice.

Deep League Help- Cashner

Andrew Cashner recorded his sixth win of the season Monday night against the Brewers. He pitched 6.0 innings, allowing 3 runs on 3 hits while striking out 6 batters.

Analysis: The Padres may be struggling but they cannot blame Andrew Cashner. He’s sporting a 3.84 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP which is 46th in baseball at the moment. Over his last eights starts he has allowed more than three earned runs just once and has not given up a home run in that span. His xFIP is just below 4.00 which is just fine for deeper leagues.

Cashner’s strikeout rate is down this year but he was a reliever for most of the 2012 season where his fastball velocity averaged over 97 MPH. He’s still throwing heat this year but his contact rate is up considerably. Cashner is available in 50-90% of fantasy leagues and he projects to sustain his sub 4.00 ERA. He has a career 1.32 WHIP so it is safe to say he won’t be blowing up your ratios in roto leagues. He also has dual starter/reliever position eligibility for those who like using starters as relievers to rack up wins and K’s.

Selling High- Gordon Beckham

Fantasy owners have been waiting forever for Gordon Beckham to produce. So far this year he has but can he keep it up?

Analysis: Beckham is the 6th rated fantasy second baseman over the last month of the season. Through 44 games this year he is hitting .335 but don’t expect that going forward. Beckham’s .383 BABIP is 12th in baseball among batters with at least 100 plate appearances. To contrast- his career BABIP is .286 while his career batting average is just .252.

Beckham is available in 40-50% of fantasy leagues as his stock continues to rise at the second base position. His main asset thus far has been his batting average but it will be painfully pedestrian the rest of the season. Furthermore, Beckham only has two home runs this year and his .108 isolated power is 35th among major league second baseman(min. 100 PA). Again, that’s 35th among second baseman. Beckham’s 3.6% walk rate is also not doing him any favors.

He may be the hottest second baseman on the wire but there are better options out there. The smart play here is to sell and to sell high.

Lucroy vs. Montero

Over the last month Jonathan Lucroy and Miguel Montero have put up top 10 numbers at the catcher position but which one is a better option?

Analysis: Jonathan Lucroy already has 13 home runs this year which is a career high. His HR/FB rate is up just a bit but nothing that indicates his power will significantly drop off in the second half. His batting average, walk rate and strikeouts are all around his career levels so we are seeing the real deal here. Lucroy has been hitting third or fourth in the Brewer’s lineup lately and as a result his 52 RBI is second in all of baseball this year among catchers. Lucroy is the sixth rated catcher thus far and expect top ten(ish) numbers going forward. He is available in 10-20% of fantasy leagues.

Miguel Montero is an interesting case. He struggled the first two months of the season and has not put up top twenty fantasy catcher numbers. Montero’s BABIP is .044 points below his career average this year which is why his batting average is just .224. Montero has averaged 16.5 home runs and 87 RBI over the last two years so he is capable of turning it around. Montero is a top fifteen catcher going forward but he’s hitting sixth or seventh in the D-Backs’ order which hurts his fantasy value.