Category: MLB

Rangers’ Cruz, Hamilton, to play Monday

On the heels of a 7-game road trip, the Texas Rangers will return home to Arlington and have two presents waiting for them: Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton. Both are expected to be in the lineup Monday against the White Sox. Bringing these two back onto the 25-man roster will have a significant ripple effect.

First who will get taken off the roster to make room? The most obvious candidates are Taylor Teagarden, Chris Davis, and Endy Chavez. The Rangers carried Teagarden through their first inter-league series where a third catcher can be valuable. Davis has started to hit better, but still can’t seem to hit breaking pitches.  All three can be optioned, but Chavez might be placed on the DL with a tight hamstring. None of those three should be on a fantasy roster, so that doesn’t affect fantasy moves.

The second ripple is that Hamilton will exclusively DH for at least the first two series back and Cruz will be in right field. Michael Young has been the Rangers’ most consistent hitter, so he’s staying in the field, and will rotate amongst the infield positions. This will hurt Mike Napoli’s playing time. Texas is expected to face two lefties in the next 6 games (Monday and Friday), so Napoli should start them at catcher, but not in the other 4 games. The way he’s swung the bat lately, it might be a good idea.

Every infielder should also get at least one game off this week. We could see Michael Young play 2nd and 3rd at some point in the 6 games against Chicago and Kansas City giving Kinsler and Beltre a day off. Andres Blanco will probably give Elvis Andrus a day off as well. So basically there are only two position players you can count on to play every game next week, and that’s Nelson Cruz and Michael Young. Look for scouting reports early.

Projection (Hamilton): 105 games (out of remaining 114), .315, 22 home runs, 70 RBI’s, 60 runs scored, 1 steal.

Projection (Cruz): 108 games (out of remaining 114), .290, 26 home runs, 65 RBI’s, 54 runs scored, 5 steals.

Selling High- Wade Davis

Wade Davis may be sporting a 3.47 ERA but there are many reasons to be concerned.

Analysis: Davis’ fastball velocity is down 2 MPH from last year, as well as his slider, curve and change velocities are all down. Davis may have a career 3.89 ERA but his FIP sits at 4.54, that over six tenths of a difference. Davis is also striking out two less batters per nine this year (6 vs. 4.1) and walking nearly one more batter per nine (3.3 vs. 4.1). He’s striking out just as many as he’s walking but he’s still walking around with a 3.47 ERA, incredible. Add in a LOB% of 81.5 which is good for the top twenty among all MLB pitchers and you have a guy just waiting to lose significant value. Davis’ 6.6% HR/FB rate is well below the league average. All in all Davis is a pitcher that appears to be doing just fine but if you take a deeper look you’ll see without a doubt that it’s time to sell the righty before it’s too late.

Projection: Going forward Davis is a 4.00 ERA pitcher with some serious command and velocity issues. He’s only striking out 4.1 batters per nine, you don’t win fantasy leagues with that. Like with Ogando, Hafner, Gomes and Fuld before him, I urge you to sell now.

Show Yunel Some Love

Yunel Escobar is outperforming Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter and Alex Gonzalez thus far this year but he’s not getting much love… until now.

Analysis: Yunel Escobar is seventh in batting average, fourth in runs and sixth in homers among all big league shortstops this season. Escobar has bounced back well after an awful 2010 season that saw him hit just four homers and bat .256 in 135 games. This year Escobar is on pace for double digit homers, a batting average in the .285-295 range and an impressive eighty-five plus runs. He’s rated as the sixteenth best shortstop accordingly to most “player raters” yet he is available in forty percent of fantasy leagues. His walk rate of 11% is at a career high level, in fact he’s second among shortstops in the walk department with nineteen. The only negative aspect of his game this year is his stolen bases. He’s only received the green light twice, stealing just one bag on the year. He still should end up with five or six steals by year’s end but it is a slight concern. Escobar is just twenty-eight years old and his power should be surfacing momentarily. Smart owners will want to pluck him up off the wire if only for depth. A shortstop that should hit .290 with double digit homers, nearly ninety runs and a handful of steals is considered a valuable asset on any fantasy team, so show Yunel some love.

Scott Rolen Is On Fire

Since returning from the 15 day disabled list (strained shoulder) Friday against St. Louis, Scott Rolen is on fire. It’s time to pick up the veteran third baseman before it’s too late.

Analysis: Just three games into his return Scott Rolen has seven hits, a double, a triple, two RBI and two runs scored. Rolen has went from being available in about forty percent of fantasy leagues to over eight percent while on the disabled list. At the very worst Rolen adds depth at third or the corner infield slot for your fantasy squad. When healthy he is a must own especially when considering he hits behind Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce and oh yeah… Great American Ballpark is a hitter’s paradise. Rolen’s walk rate is way down this year but that isn’t the worst thing in terms of fantasy roto leagues. His strikeout rate is similar to his last two years and his BABIP is right on track for another .270 batting average season. Third base has been the biggest disappointment from a fantasy perspective this year- A-Rod, Youkilis(multi-position), A-Ram, Reynolds with Zimmerman and Longoria missing significant time. Pick up Rolen and roll with him for depth at least until he goes back on the disbaled list at some point.

Projection: Still expect around fifteen homers by season’s end but his fantasy strength is his RBI numbers.

Is Todd Helton Back?

Todd Helton is just two homers short of what he hit last year in 118 games and his batting average is seventy points higher. So, is Todd Helton back?

Analysis: Todd Helton is the fourteenth best fantasy first baseman thus far this year, it’s pretty impressive when considering the thirty-seven year old was left for dead coming into the 2011 season. You have to love what Helton is doing at the plate, making contact. His strikeout rate is half of what is was last year and three percent below his career average of 14 percent. His BABIP, ISO and wOBA all check out around his career levels so it appears Todd Helton is back, at least for now. You have to consider as the season wears on the veteran his performance will drop but with his contact rate (92%) you’d have to imagine his batting average will not dip below .300 and hitting in Coors Field should help hide his diminishing power. You really have two options with Helton- in deeper leagues pick him up off the wire or sell him for a team need/shallow position. He’s a perfect depth player in roto leagues with his batting average as well as his run and RBI totals.

Projection: Helton should bat around .300 with 40 runs and 40 RBI the rest of the season. Expect his play to drop a bit, so act accordingly.