Category: MLB

Alex Gordon, Post Hype Sleeper?

Much was expected from Alex Gordon after being taken second in the 2005 MLB draft but after four disappointing big league seasons he just may put in together.

Analysis: There was a time in baseball a handful of years ago when the big debate was who was the best prospect, Alex Gordon or 2003 top pick Delmon Young. It took Young a change of scenery and five seasons to put together a really solid year and it may be the case for Alex Gordon in his fifth year. Gordon has been tagged with the 4-A label, a guy too good for the minors but just cannot get it done in the bigs. This year, however, Gordon has looked very impressive batting third in an underrated Royals lineup. Gordon is never going to take tons of walks or strikeout less than 20% of the time but he does possess some lightning quick wrists and extremely fast bat speed. Thus far this year in four games Gordon has six hits, two doubles with four runs. This should come as no surprise due to the productive spring Gordon had as he hit .343 with six bombs in 70 AB. The third spot in the batting order just may be what he needs at this point in his career to be the most productive player he can be.

Projection: He’s only owned in less than ten percent of leagues so you don’t have to pick him up now but he does have the chance to put up some solid numbers this year. If he can stay healthy expect 20 HR, 10-12 SB, a .270 AVG with the potential for more.

Matt Harrison is 2011’s C.J. Wilson

The Texas Rangers’ Matt Harrison is only one start into 2011, and it’s been dominant. Seven innings, 5 hits, 2 walks (both in the 7th inning after showing signs of fatigue), and 8 strikeouts (four looking) against arguably Major League Baseball’s best lineup in the Boston Red Sox.

Harrison opened the 2008 and 2009 season as the Rangers’ #5 starter, but with the loss of Cliff Lee to free agency and Tommy Hunter to injury, he slid into the 3rd spot of the rotation. Matt had a solid spring, leading all Ranger pitchers with 23 innings.

He’s a hard thrower for a left-handed pitcher, topping out at 94 miles per hour. Any lefty that can do that will have a chance to be successful in baseball. He’s had flashes of greatness, including today, as long as he minimizes the walks. He got into trouble against the Sox after 2 walks in one inning, but came back to strike out Jacoby Ellsbury. If Harrison can keep his K:BB above 3:1, he’ll have a chance to go deep into games and position himself to win a lot of games.

Advice: Pick Harrison up and for the first few month or so, use him against favorable matchups. His next expected starts are against Baltimore, New York, Los Angeles, Toronto, and Oakland. Other than the Yankees, those are all favorable, which makes Harrison a very valuable player early on. Even though he dominated a vaunted Boston lineup, he’s still raw enough to be punished by patient, established hitters like the Yankees.

Projection: 28 starts, 175 innings, 14 wins, 3.45 ERA, 145 k’s, 1.26 WHIP

What do you think? Will Harrison have a solid season? Or was this first start an aberration?

Stock Falling- Carl Crawford

Carl Crawford may be 0-7 with four strikeouts to start the season but that isn’t why his stock is falling.

Analysis: Carl Crawford’s stock is falling because of where he is currently hitting the the Red Sox batting order. Crawford is hitting third after spending his whole career either leading off or hitting in the two spot with Tampa. His potential stolen base numbers from hitting third in the order concern me a great deal and we can look to Hanley Ramirez to show you why. Hanley lead off for Florida in 2006 and 2007 and he stole 51 bases each year. Fast forward to 2008 where he batted third and he only stole 35 bags. Hanley has been hitting third ever since and has not come close to stealing forty bags. If Crawford remains in the three spot behind protypical lead off batter Jacoby Ellsbury and prototypical two hitter Dustin Pedroia he has a problem. His problem now becomes yours because you drafted a guy whose greatest asset is now in check and he has never hit twenty homers in a season.

Projection: If Crawford remains in the three spot in the batting order he won’t even come close to sniffing fifty swipes this year. Obviously you have to wait and see if his spot in the order is set in stone or if injuries to Ellsbury or Pedroia occur, but right now his potential stolen base numbers this year have taken a hit.

Kyle Drabek Impresses

Kyle Drabek or the “guy who came over from Philly” in the Roy Halladay deal pitched a very impressive game today in his 2011 debut with Toronto.

Analysis: It certainly does run in the family for Kyle Drabek. His dad, Doug, won 155 games for four different big league clubs and sported a career ERA south of four. Kyle also has the potential to be a number one starter although he has been delayed due to Tommy John surgery in 2008. His fastabll tops out in the mid 90s, he throws very hard slider and he gets a lot of strikeouts on his breaking ball. Today Drabek pitched seven innings of one run ball against a potent Twins lineup. Drabek was locating his fastball almost at will and struck out seven batters while only allowing a single hit. He isn’t a strikeout artist but he K’s enough batters and limits his walks to really have a positive impact on your WHIP in roto leagues.

Projection: Don’t go banking on a 16 win season after one solid outing although he is a must add in deeper leagues. Drabek should be available on the wire because he went undrafted in many fantasy drafts. You really cannot afford to see more starts this early on in the season to add a guy with his kind of potential. Add him now, keep him or use him as trade bait but don’t let anyone in your league get to this guy first.

Stock Rising- Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez homered and stole a base yesterday against the Reds but that isn’t why his stock is on the rise.

Analysis: Carlos Gomez spent most of last year either leading off or hitting in the eight spot, this year is a different story. Gomez hit second in front of one of the most complete hitters in the game today, Ryan Braun. The protection in the lineup should ensure a better chance for a successful season for the ever inconsistent Gomez. Gomez does strikeout entirely too much, nearly 24% of the time for his career but hitting behind Braun should improve that number slightly. Teams won’t be throwing junk at Gomez to hack at like in seasons past because they cannot afford to take the risk of putting runners on base with Ryan Braun at the plate. This may be the perfect “post hype” time to buy in to Gomez’s stock. If he can stick at the two spot in that Brewers batting order you can expect more consistency from the young center fielder.

Projection: It’s hard to project a guy that has had such an up and down, but mostly down career like Carlos Gomez. You should expect his career batting average of .246 to come up at least ten points this year and with it a few more stolen bags due to the Ryan Braun effect. Gomez is still very raw but his double digit power potential with his speed is likely to surface sooner than later.