Category: NFL

ADP Watch- RBs

It is finally August which means it is time to take a look at the average draft positions of key fantasy players.

Analysis: Andre Ellington is the most interesting back this season. Jonathan Cooper will finally make his pro debut. The left guard was the seventh overall pick from the 2013 NFL draft and he will help Ellington out immediately. It also helps that Arizona added Ted Ginn as their third wide out. Even though he never puts up great numbers he always stretches the field which is something the Arizona ground game is in desperate need of.

Ellington ran for 652 yards last year on 5.5 yards per carry. Among backs with at least 100 carries Ellington ranked 1st in yard per carry last year. Ellington also racked up 39 receptions last season. His ADP is between 32-49. He is the 15th to 20th running back being taken off the board. I don’t think taking thirty-one year old Frank Gore ahead of him makes sense. Reggie Bush is going right around where Ellington is in fantasy drafts. Keep in mind that Bush has 13 fumbles over the last three seasons including 5 last year(4 lost). Turnovers have been huge for Detroit… does Bush have a short leash this season? Reggie Bush simply does not possess the upside of Ellington, but…. is the risk worth the reward?

Round Two Fits

The Tennessee ground game and the Jacksonville passing game received some much needed help in round two of the 2014 NFL draft.

Analysis: The Titans picked up running back Bishop Sankey in the second round. Sankey should get tons of carries this year with the aging and mediocre Shonn Greene coming off of yet another knee surgery. Keep in mind that the Tennessee offensive line ranks in the top third of the NFL and Jake Locker is developing into a solid quarterback which teams will have to respect. It will all depend on Sankey’s ADP but his fantasy future looks bright.

The Jags picked up wide outs Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in the second round. Lee is a fine athlete and may have a good career but too many brainwashed couch experts wanted him to go in the mid to late first round. If Lee had played his college ball in Iowa the hype just wouldn’t be there, period. Regardless, Lee could be on the end of 100 targets this coming season. However, Allen Robinson is the intriguing one here. He’s 6’2″ 220 pounds and has a 39 inch vertical to go along with great hands and exceptional body control. Outside of Cecil Shorts the Jags have nothing out wide so the Lee/Robinson training camp/preseason positional battle will be fun to monitor.

Round One Winners

Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks were the clear fantasy winners in the first round of the 2014 draft.

Analysis: Steve Smith, Ted Ginn and Brandon LaFell have all moved on and now Cam Newton has a shortage of aerial weapons. Greg Olsen is still in the mix but the addition of the 6’5″ 240 pound Kelvin Benjamin is most welcome. Yes, the Panthers are a run first team but Cam Newton has thrown for over 3,300 yards and recorded a passer rating north of 84 in each of his first three years in the league. Benjamin could be looking at a 60 reception, 900 yard, 7 touchdown rookie campaign with room for upside pending on how heavily targeted he is.

The Saints on the other hand attempted the fourth most passes in the NFL last year. Lance Moore is gone so it appears that Brandin Cooks will be the third passing option for Drew Brees behind Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham. The 5’10” Cooks ran a 4.33 40 at the combine(second overall) and also ran a 3.81 20 yard shuttle(first overall). Cooks has more natural playmaking ability than Kenny Stills and with Darren Sproles also gone Sean Payton is sure to find creative ways to get Cooks involved. Sproles recorded 71 receptions last year and Moore notched 37 in thirteen games… those receptions have to go somewhere.

Round One Losers

There are always players drafted in the first round that land on the wrong team in regards to pure fantasy numbers… this year is no exception.

Analysis: The Lions drafted tight end Eric Ebron with the tenth overall pick. Ebron is a great athlete but his fantasy situation isn’t the best. Detroit has 6’5″ Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and the 6’6″ Kris Durham out wide to go along with the 6’5″ Brandon Pettigrew and the 6’7″ Joseph Fauria at tight end. The Lions have tons of red zone options and Ebron will struggle to score even though he can make a significant impact this year.

Wide out Odell Beckham was drafted twelfth overall by the New York Giants. Thirty-three year old Eli Manning is on the decline, period. He turned the ball over 29 times last year and recorded a 69.4 passer rating. The New York running game is trash and their offensive line is mediocre at best. Victor Cruz is still the number one option but Beckham will be fighting for targets with third year player Rueben Randle, Mario Manningham and Jerrel Jernigan. Randle caught 6 touchdowns on 41 receptions last year and is a former second round pick. Jernigan caught 19 balls on 27 targets and had 3 total touchdowns in the final three games of the season.

Streaming Defenses- Week 17

Week sixteen is officially over and now it is time to take a look at our “team to stream” in week seventeen.

Analysis: This week we will take the Philly defense on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. Tony Romo will not be playing and Kyle Orton will be at the helm for the Cowboys. Orton has only thrown 15 passes over the last two seasons, so we will count on rust playing a huge factor this week.

The Eagles on the other hand have played great fantasy defense in three of their last four games. Chicago could have wrapped up the NFC North on Sunday night but the Philly defense recorded 5 sacks, 2 turnovers, a safety and a touchdown. The Philly defense does not have good numbers this year which can be attributed to time of possession. But the extra time on defense isn’t all that bad when it comes to sacks(17th in NFL), fumble recoveries(6th) and interceptions(8th). The Philly D/ST is available in over 90% of fantasy leagues.

The Pittsburgh defense is another unit to consider in week seventeen. The Steelers are at home against the Browns who have 15 turnovers during their current six game losing streak. The Pittsburgh defense is available in 30% of fantasy leagues.