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Buying Low- Brandon Morrow

Brandon Morrow may have allowed six or more runs in two of his last three outings but he’s still worthy of a spot on any fantasy roster.

Analysis: Yes, Morrow is getting lit up out there but he’s also put together some solid performances recently as well. In fact, two of his last four outings were more than solid- thirteen combined innings pitched with one earned run and striking out ten against the ChiSox and the Royals. He has been hit or miss and he isn’t in a division where he was going to post top of the rotation numbers but he is a reliable source of strikeouts and the man has been unlucky. Morrow’s 60.3 LOB% this year is eleven points below his career average and his ERA-FIP is 3.08, an astonishing .98 over the second unluckiest pitcher this year in John Lackey. The bottom line is Brandon Morrow isn’t an awful pitcher and it’s the perfect time to buy the right hander low. He’s still a strikeout machine and his fastball and slider are still plus pitches.

Projection: Morrow will continue to K ten batters per nine and expect his ERA to be just under four in his remaining starts.

Austin Jackson Is Surging

With four multi-hit games in his last four contests Austin Jackson is one hot fantasy outfielder.

Analysis: It has been a relatively disappointing year thus far for Austin Jackson but he is still putting up fantasy relevant numbers. Jackson’s ten stolen bases is good for eighteenth among major league outfielders and his thirty-three runs is good for twenty-sixth among big league outfielders. He is still producing even with a .258 batting average. It’s a bit strange that the youngster has an ISO over fifteen points higher this year even though in 2010 he was hitting about forty points higher than he is now. His power is starting to develop much to the surprise of some and he has double digit home run potential as early as next year. The surging Jackson is still available in over fifty percent of fantasy leagues so you may want to pick up the surging speedster before it’s too late. Jackson has also amassed the ninth most at bats this year among outfielders and with his recent streak his run and stolen base totals should become more than respectable by year’s end. He certainly is a hot and cold player but patience is paying off in this case.

Projection: Expect four to five bombs, fifteen to eighteen steals and fifty plus runs in Jackson’s remaining ninety games.

Deep League Help- Mike Leake

After a disappointing start to the 2011 season Mike Leake is on fire and it’s official, he’s a fantasy force. Still available in ninety percent of leagues it’s time to pick the righty up before it’s too late.

Analysis: Mike Leake is now 3-0 is his last four starts while only allowing six runs in just 28 innings pitched. He’s never been much of a strikeout machine so a K/9 rate in the six to seven range is fine for him and that’s exactly what he is doing. Leake’s solid outings have been due, his FIP is 3.70 this year compared to a 4.06 ERA. Leake’s cutter is top notch but it has been his command and the late break of his slider that has been making the difference these last four starts. Although he doesn’t pitch in a pitcher friendly park he has the tools to overcome that and be a productive fantasy starter week in and week out. 2011 has been all the difference for Leake- his strikeouts are up, walks down and his WHIP stands at 1.29 as a result. He is prone to give up big innings from time to time but he’s too talented of a back of the rotation fantasy starter to pass up.

Projection: Expect an ERA around or just under four with a WHIP in the 1.30-1.35 range for the duration of the season. He has all the tools to succeed but how many innings will he pitch?

Last Call On Moustakas

Kansas City third baseman Mike Moustakas played his first major league game Friday and it’s last call on this hot commodity.

Analysis: Moustakas is already owned in nearly fifty percent of fantasy leagues nationwide and there is a reason why. This kid is as talented as they come. Moustakas hit 36 bombs in just 118 AA/AAA games last year and for a power hitter his strike out rates are low. He still is a bit impatient at the plate but the guy just mashes regardless. Within a month Moustakas should be a top eighteen fantasy third baseman with potential for much more. Moustakas’ batting average is a plus as well. Over the last two years in AA/AAA ball Moustakas has yet to hit under .285 while maintaining a manageable BABIP. We may see quite a few doubles from Moustakas starting out but do not be discouraged if the homers don’t come right away. He was hitting sixth Friday behind Billy Butler but it shouldn’t be long before he finds himself cleaning up or in the five spot.

Projection: A .280 batting average with about thirteen homers seems reasonable for the slugger.

Ichiro Is Fine

There has been a lot of press recently on how Ichiro has lost a step but it’s all propaganda.

Analysis: The main stream media wants you to think Ichiro isn’t Ichiro for some reason. However, all you have to do is look at the numbers and you’ll see Ichiro is still Ichiro, he’s just “sleeping” if you will. Ichiro’s BABIP is down over 75 points from his career average of .354. To add insult to injury, Ichiro has his lowest strikeout ratio(8.0 K%) since his rookie year in 2001(7.7 K%). Furthering the insult, Ichiro’s walk rate(7.4%) is his highest since 2002(9.3%). The media is making a huge deal that the outfielder is homerless through sixty-three games but Ichiro only hit six bombs last year. Not to make excuses but Safeco, next to Petco is the most pitcher friendly park in the bigs over the last five years. But you didn’t draft Ichiro for the power did you? It’s understandable to be frustrated with his batting average but he has been one unlucky guy this year. He’s putting the ball in play more than ever and he’s not getting rewarded. BABIP is a crazy thing, it can make Carlos Gonzalez look like a top ten pick(see my Febuary 20th article explaining that he wasn’t) and it can make Aaron Hill look just awful.

Projection: Ichiro is still on pace to steal 35-40 bags this year, that’s special when considering he’s hitting just .252. Expect four homers, twenty plus steals and a batting average over .300 in Ichiro’s remaining games.