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Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner Have Something Special In Common

Derek Jeter has both a new stride and a new contract in his old roles as leadoff hitter and The Captain, while Brett Garner continues to mature at the bottom of the Yankee batting order.

Analysis: One has Menka Kelly, an apartment in Trump Tower, and an English Manor house in Florida. The other is the son of a South Carolina Low Country tomato farmer, who couldn’t get past the walk-on cut in college try outs, yet he wouldn’t take no as an answer, showing up uninvited the next day in his old high school uniform. Ten seasons later Gardner is firmly planted in left field in the Bronx and at the bottom of the batting order. Jeter will achieve a pinstriped milestone- 3,000 hits this season. Many sabermetricians feel Gardner will regress this season, as they feel his BABIP in 2010 indicates his batting average will dip in 2011 and thus most likely his stolen bases as well. Some of those same experts say The Captain has lost too much to contribute at the top of the batting order. Yet it is common place for great hitters at the end of their careers to make little tweaks in their swings to prolong their role as impact players on their teams. Never bet against either of these players. What they have in common and is often over-looked is talent as defined by the estimable Joe Posnanski – “talent just might be what we call hunger, the unquenchable desire…”

We do agree with the expert Bill James on these lines in 2011:

Yankee PA HR R RBI SB BA OB%
Jeter 703 13 101 68 17 0.295 0.365
Gardner 589 5 101 46 50 0.275 0.377

If the top and the bottom of the Yankee batting order account for a total of 202 runs and 67 stolen bases, then don’t worry about the championship quality of the Yankee offense. The Yankees will make the play-offs in 2011 if they have 3/4s of that kind of success 60 feet 6 inches from home plate.

Edge in Fantasy Baseball Auction: Ryan Dempster or Carlos Zambrano?

Ryan Dempster will start the Cubs’ season and home opener, not Carlos Zambrano. Is there more to Dempster than that and how about Big Z?

Analysis: Opening Day pitchers are often over priced on Auction Day, yet the mercurial and talented Carlos Zambrano is the consensus larger-than-life Cubbies’ Ace. So which one is the better buy and why?

Zambrano ERA+ K
2010 131 117
2009 118 152
2008 118 130
Dempster
2010 113 208
2009 122 172
2008 155 187

If strikeouts are one of your league’s categories, then this is a no-brainer. Let’s leave the wins for another day.

In the meantime look for these lines in 2011:

Hurler IP K ERA WHIP FIP
Zambrano 184 162 3.77 1.39 3.81
Dempster 209 189 3.79 1.31 3.87

Auction Price vs. Projected Stats Value: How much should you budget before inflation, if you’re in a 5 X 5 keeper league? They will probably go for $7 to $12  at auction. Big Z should earn $8 to $10, while Dempster should be worth $10 to $14. In a $260 salary cap rotisserie league at the end of Auction Day a $20 profit = First Division finish and a $40 profit = Contender all season long. If they go for the same price, then buy Dempster.


Don’t Believe the Tsuyoshi Nishioka Hype

Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes over to MLB after a .346/.423/.482 triple slash line in 2010 with the Chiba Lotte Marines. He should play at second base for the Twins and much is expected from him from a fantasy standpoint.

Analysis: If you look at recent big names to come over from the NPB like Kosuke Fukudome or Akinori Iwamura, they both disappointed fantasy owners greatly. The reward isn’t worth the risk and there is a ton of risk involved with Nishioka. There is no possible way he’ll hit more than eight to ten homers especially in the new pitchers park known as Target Field. He’s also had health issues, never amassing more than 500 ABs in his NPB career with the expection of last year when he tallied 596 AB.

Projection: Give me Alcides Escobar every day of the week over Nishioka. At least with Escobar you’ll get him a few rounds later and he’ll come close to out producing Nishioka. It’s not hard to project slap hitting Japanese middle infielders anymore so expect a .280 AVG, 5 HR, 18-20 SB.

Le’Ron McClain Could See Rise in Value With Willis McGahee Release

According to several sources, the Baltimore Ravens plan to release veteran running back Willis McGahee, which could potentially assist in bringing back veteran fullback, Le’Ron McClain.

Analysis: McClain is a free agent and has been complainig about his lack of touches over the past two years. However, with the news that McGahee is on his way out, McClain could resign if he was guaranteed McGahee’s old role.

Projection: McClain ran for over 900 yards and 10 touchdowns just three years ago, so he could still provide great help with short yardage and goal-line duties. If he returns and gets the role he’s seeking, McClain could easily vie for 400+ rushing yards and 5-7 touchdowns.

Will Justin Morneau Start 2011 on the Disabled List?

The Twins burly first baseman reported to camp this morning, still dealing with prolonged issues from a concussion suffered last July.

Analysis: A former MVP and feared power threat, Morneau hit the Disabled List on July 7 after his head and the knee of Toronto’s John McDonald made dangerous contact while attempting to prevent a double play. Over seven months later some symptoms still remain, leaving his availability for Opening Day up in the air. At the time of his injury Morneau was on pace for one of his best seasons yet, hitting .345 with 18 home runs in 81 games. However, the days and weeks following that fateful day have been a tough road for Justin, who has reportedly run the gamut of concussion symptoms since. Early reports out of Twins camp are that Morneau plans to participate in a regular training schedule but that he will miss at least the first four games of the team’s Grapefruit League schedule.

Projection: Trying to predict a timetable when concussions are involved is almost an impossibility. Add that to the fact that this was Morneau’s third concussion (one as a child, one in 2005 after being hit in the head with a Ron Villone pitch) and you’re entering very choppy waters. Personally, Morneau has been a perennial keeper in my H2H league since 2006. I’ve decided, after much trepidation, that I have to cut him loose this season. Although the obvious potential to produce is there, I don’t think that the possibility of lost time is worth the risk at a position where several prominent alternatives exist.  He is definitely someone to keep a close eye on in the coming weeks.