Matt Harrison is 2011’s C.J. Wilson

The Texas Rangers’ Matt Harrison is only one start into 2011, and it’s been dominant. Seven innings, 5 hits, 2 walks (both in the 7th inning after showing signs of fatigue), and 8 strikeouts (four looking) against arguably Major League Baseball’s best lineup in the Boston Red Sox.

Harrison opened the 2008 and 2009 season as the Rangers’ #5 starter, but with the loss of Cliff Lee to free agency and Tommy Hunter to injury, he slid into the 3rd spot of the rotation. Matt had a solid spring, leading all Ranger pitchers with 23 innings.

He’s a hard thrower for a left-handed pitcher, topping out at 94 miles per hour. Any lefty that can do that will have a chance to be successful in baseball. He’s had flashes of greatness, including today, as long as he minimizes the walks. He got into trouble against the Sox after 2 walks in one inning, but came back to strike out Jacoby Ellsbury. If Harrison can keep his K:BB above 3:1, he’ll have a chance to go deep into games and position himself to win a lot of games.

Advice: Pick Harrison up and for the first few month or so, use him against favorable matchups. His next expected starts are against Baltimore, New York, Los Angeles, Toronto, and Oakland. Other than the Yankees, those are all favorable, which makes Harrison a very valuable player early on. Even though he dominated a vaunted Boston lineup, he’s still raw enough to be punished by patient, established hitters like the Yankees.

Projection: 28 starts, 175 innings, 14 wins, 3.45 ERA, 145 k’s, 1.26 WHIP

What do you think? Will Harrison have a solid season? Or was this first start an aberration?

Stock Falling- Carl Crawford

Carl Crawford may be 0-7 with four strikeouts to start the season but that isn’t why his stock is falling.

Analysis: Carl Crawford’s stock is falling because of where he is currently hitting the the Red Sox batting order. Crawford is hitting third after spending his whole career either leading off or hitting in the two spot with Tampa. His potential stolen base numbers from hitting third in the order concern me a great deal and we can look to Hanley Ramirez to show you why. Hanley lead off for Florida in 2006 and 2007 and he stole 51 bases each year. Fast forward to 2008 where he batted third and he only stole 35 bags. Hanley has been hitting third ever since and has not come close to stealing forty bags. If Crawford remains in the three spot behind protypical lead off batter Jacoby Ellsbury and prototypical two hitter Dustin Pedroia he has a problem. His problem now becomes yours because you drafted a guy whose greatest asset is now in check and he has never hit twenty homers in a season.

Projection: If Crawford remains in the three spot in the batting order he won’t even come close to sniffing fifty swipes this year. Obviously you have to wait and see if his spot in the order is set in stone or if injuries to Ellsbury or Pedroia occur, but right now his potential stolen base numbers this year have taken a hit.

Kyle Drabek Impresses

Kyle Drabek or the “guy who came over from Philly” in the Roy Halladay deal pitched a very impressive game today in his 2011 debut with Toronto.

Analysis: It certainly does run in the family for Kyle Drabek. His dad, Doug, won 155 games for four different big league clubs and sported a career ERA south of four. Kyle also has the potential to be a number one starter although he has been delayed due to Tommy John surgery in 2008. His fastabll tops out in the mid 90s, he throws very hard slider and he gets a lot of strikeouts on his breaking ball. Today Drabek pitched seven innings of one run ball against a potent Twins lineup. Drabek was locating his fastball almost at will and struck out seven batters while only allowing a single hit. He isn’t a strikeout artist but he K’s enough batters and limits his walks to really have a positive impact on your WHIP in roto leagues.

Projection: Don’t go banking on a 16 win season after one solid outing although he is a must add in deeper leagues. Drabek should be available on the wire because he went undrafted in many fantasy drafts. You really cannot afford to see more starts this early on in the season to add a guy with his kind of potential. Add him now, keep him or use him as trade bait but don’t let anyone in your league get to this guy first.

Piece of Crap: Vince Carter’s 2011 Fantasy Season

Vince Carter has been in obvious decline over the past few years, but this year has all but sealed his fate. He no longer has the potential to be an impact fantasy player.

Analysis: Carter put up 28 points in his last game on March 30th, but that has not happened with any consistency this year. He is averaging a paltry 14 points a game, which is on par with what Beno Udrih is putting up this season. Carter’s fall from grace has gone further with him shooting roughly 42% from the field. His assists, rebounds, and steals are all down significantly from the last few years too. Carter averaged 22 points, 5 boards, and 4 dimes on his career, but I think it is safe to say he won’t reach those numbers ever again. I was surprised by his fantasy production this year, because I really thought the excellent training staff in Phoenix would whip him into shape. If the same Phoenix staff who got the Shaqtus back in to shape can’t fix Carter than he doesn’t stand a chance. Throw in the fact that he is playing with one of the best pure point guards in the league and, simply put, Carter is a big piece of crap this year.

Projection: Phoenix is not going to make the playoffs this year and Carter will have little reason to finish out the season very strongly. Carter should not still be on your fantasy team, there are plenty of better alternatives on the waiver wire.

Dropping Andrei Kirilenko Is A Must

Andrei Kirilenko will miss his fourth straight game tonight against the Lakers with a left knee injury.

Analysis: The Utah Jazz haven’t officially shut him down but I suspect that is what’s going on. Utah cannot make the playoffs so there is no real urgency to get him back on the court. Kirilenko is also a free agent after this season, so as much as he has been talking about a possible return to action this season it is highly doubtful he will put a new contact at risk playing for essentially nothing. He’s still owned in the majority of fantasy leagues but it is time to dump the multi category small forward.

Pick Up: Speaking of multi category small forwards, Ron Artest is making a comeback in the stat sheet my friends. How about 14 steals and 5 blocks in his last six games, sounds like Andrei Kirilenko type numbers. Ron Ron has also knocked down 10 threes in those six games and his minutes have been about four more than his season average of twenty-nine. Ron Ron is slowly getting into playoff form and with two weeks remaining and the Andrei Kirilenko situation, you’re best served picking up Artest.