Dan Hamhuis Returns Tonight

After missing five games with a concussion Canucks defenseman Dan Hamhuis will be returning to action tonight against the Canadiens.

Analysis: Hamhuis returns to an injury depleted Canucks blue line where he should see tons of ice and power play time. He’s owned in about twenty percent of fantasy leagues nationwide and can provide a much needed boost to your squad heading into the home stretch. Alex Edler and Kevin Bieksa remain out so Dan Hamhuis will have every chance to re-prove his fantasy worth. Before his injury Hamhuis was a plus 21 in just forty-seven games…absolutely sick. Twenty-three minutes of ice time with 14 assists isn’t anything to sneeze at either. This is a great situation for Hamhuis to put up some quality under the radar numbers in the Canucks final twenty-two games.

Projection: Expect about 8 assists, 24 minutes of ice time, a handful of power play points and a plus 5 rating the rest of the season. What Hamhuis is capable of on the injury plagued Canucks will certainly catch your attention sooner than later.

Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner Have Something Special In Common

Derek Jeter has both a new stride and a new contract in his old roles as leadoff hitter and The Captain, while Brett Garner continues to mature at the bottom of the Yankee batting order.

Analysis: One has Menka Kelly, an apartment in Trump Tower, and an English Manor house in Florida. The other is the son of a South Carolina Low Country tomato farmer, who couldn’t get past the walk-on cut in college try outs, yet he wouldn’t take no as an answer, showing up uninvited the next day in his old high school uniform. Ten seasons later Gardner is firmly planted in left field in the Bronx and at the bottom of the batting order. Jeter will achieve a pinstriped milestone- 3,000 hits this season. Many sabermetricians feel Gardner will regress this season, as they feel his BABIP in 2010 indicates his batting average will dip in 2011 and thus most likely his stolen bases as well. Some of those same experts say The Captain has lost too much to contribute at the top of the batting order. Yet it is common place for great hitters at the end of their careers to make little tweaks in their swings to prolong their role as impact players on their teams. Never bet against either of these players. What they have in common and is often over-looked is talent as defined by the estimable Joe Posnanski – “talent just might be what we call hunger, the unquenchable desire…”

We do agree with the expert Bill James on these lines in 2011:

Yankee PA HR R RBI SB BA OB%
Jeter 703 13 101 68 17 0.295 0.365
Gardner 589 5 101 46 50 0.275 0.377

If the top and the bottom of the Yankee batting order account for a total of 202 runs and 67 stolen bases, then don’t worry about the championship quality of the Yankee offense. The Yankees will make the play-offs in 2011 if they have 3/4s of that kind of success 60 feet 6 inches from home plate.

Edge in Fantasy Baseball Auction: Ryan Dempster or Carlos Zambrano?

Ryan Dempster will start the Cubs’ season and home opener, not Carlos Zambrano. Is there more to Dempster than that and how about Big Z?

Analysis: Opening Day pitchers are often over priced on Auction Day, yet the mercurial and talented Carlos Zambrano is the consensus larger-than-life Cubbies’ Ace. So which one is the better buy and why?

Zambrano ERA+ K
2010 131 117
2009 118 152
2008 118 130
Dempster
2010 113 208
2009 122 172
2008 155 187

If strikeouts are one of your league’s categories, then this is a no-brainer. Let’s leave the wins for another day.

In the meantime look for these lines in 2011:

Hurler IP K ERA WHIP FIP
Zambrano 184 162 3.77 1.39 3.81
Dempster 209 189 3.79 1.31 3.87

Auction Price vs. Projected Stats Value: How much should you budget before inflation, if you’re in a 5 X 5 keeper league? They will probably go for $7 to $12  at auction. Big Z should earn $8 to $10, while Dempster should be worth $10 to $14. In a $260 salary cap rotisserie league at the end of Auction Day a $20 profit = First Division finish and a $40 profit = Contender all season long. If they go for the same price, then buy Dempster.


NBA: What’s next?

With Carmelo taking his talents to Manhattan, expect smaller trades to fall into place. Last year, about this time, teams were positioning themselves for the Wade’s, Lebron’s and Bosh’s of the world to enter free agency.  The next huge free agent class doesn’t come until the Summer of 2013, but its never too early to prepare, right?

First things first. Before the deadline of 3pm Thursday, clubs will be looking to acquire expiring contracts or possibly position themselves to have cap space for the apple of their eye in free agency. Three big men are on the horizon headed for free agency this Summer. The Rockets Yao Ming,  The Grizzlies Zach Randolph and the Mavericks Tyson Chander will certainly spark interest. The Warriors have already hinted an interest in Yao, Chandler is having the best season of his career, while Randolph is an absolute scoring and rebounding machine. On the perimeter, the pickings are even slimmer, Orlando’s Jason Richardson, Atlanta’s Jamal Crawford and Dallas’ Caron Butler are the best of the group.

The Summer of 2012 unrestricted free agent group features a mix, with a handful of aging future Hall of Famer’s included. Tim Duncan, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Kevin Garnett, Vince Carter and Ray Allen are all up a summer from now. Will the Celtics be in total rebuild mode by then? Then, there is the younger set with Laker super-sub Shannon Brown, new Nugget Ray Felton and Hornets big man David West the best of the lot.

The Summer of 2013 is where things get REAL interesting. Need a big man? How about Orlando’s Dwight Howard? Too rich for your blood? How about Atlanta’s Josh Smith? Take a chance on injury prone Lakers big man Andrew Bynum? The guards are just as sexy. Already Utah point Deron Williams has been rumored to be interested in joining Melo in the Big Apple. New Orleans guard Chris Paul may be the most sought after of the bunch as he has not been shy about his intent to move along. Will we have another dream team ala Miami?

We have seen teams like the Knicks and Nets mortgage everything to prepare for the free agent class of 2010. Trading away every and anything of cap value, draft picks, whatever, to have space for a megastar. Its a fine line for NBA teams as they need to remain competitive for their paying fan base AND have enough talent onboard so the courted superstar doesn’t feel alone. The Knicks wanted Lebron, ended up with Carmelo, a good job of “saving” the situation in my opinion. The Nets appear to have lost out again, perhaps they will be best suited for the great crop of 2013.

Note: There is alot of uncertainty surrrounding upcoming labor talks and many things may change. Additionally, free agents mentioned are “unrestricted ” in year cited, however some have a player option which may “release” them to free agency a season earlier.

Don’t Believe the Tsuyoshi Nishioka Hype

Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes over to MLB after a .346/.423/.482 triple slash line in 2010 with the Chiba Lotte Marines. He should play at second base for the Twins and much is expected from him from a fantasy standpoint.

Analysis: If you look at recent big names to come over from the NPB like Kosuke Fukudome or Akinori Iwamura, they both disappointed fantasy owners greatly. The reward isn’t worth the risk and there is a ton of risk involved with Nishioka. There is no possible way he’ll hit more than eight to ten homers especially in the new pitchers park known as Target Field. He’s also had health issues, never amassing more than 500 ABs in his NPB career with the expection of last year when he tallied 596 AB.

Projection: Give me Alcides Escobar every day of the week over Nishioka. At least with Escobar you’ll get him a few rounds later and he’ll come close to out producing Nishioka. It’s not hard to project slap hitting Japanese middle infielders anymore so expect a .280 AVG, 5 HR, 18-20 SB.