Tag: Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill Is Under The Radar

Toronto second baseman Aaron Hill is now three games into his return from a hamstring injury and he is flying under many fantasy owner’s radars.

Analysis: Yes, Aaron Hill had an awful 2010 campaign with a sub .200 BABIP but he is one of the premier power hitting second baseman in the game. He’s averaged 31 homers over the last two seasons so it is surprising to see him available in so many fantasy leagues across the country. Hill has yet to homer in seventy-five at bats this season but it’s hard to blame him since it’s difficult to find any rhythm with his recent injury. Hill will be fine, Toronto has a solid lineup and he hits homers in bunches. This is a perfect opportunity to either pluck Aaron Hill up off the waiver wire or to buy the slugger at a discounted price. He’s still capable of posting twenty homers by season’s end and his run and RBI totals will be more than solid the rest of the way. Hill is pressing a bit at the plate and is striking out a bit above his career average but we can deal with the strikeouts when his power surfaces.

Projection: He’s never been a friend of your batting average in roto leagues but that isn ‘t why you’d want to own the second baseman. Expect a .250 BA, 17 HR, 50 R, 50 RBI and five plus steals the rest of the season. His value will not get lower.

Head for the Hill, Aaron Hill

Going into the 2010 fantasy baseball season, there were two prime breakout candidates at second base, Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill. Both players were coming off career years, and both players were worth selecting in about the 5th round. Cano went on to expand on his 2009 season, while Hill regressed, hitting below the Mendoza line with a drop of 40 RBI’s. Cano enters 2011 as a late 1st to early 2nd round pick, while Hill is available much later.

Analysis: Hill was a victim of bad luck more than anything else last season. His BABIP was .196, easily the lowest in baseball. In comparison, 110 major league players had BABIP of .290 or higher last year and only 7 were below .250.

What’s encouraging is that is the only stat that seems to be out of line for Hill’s career averages. In fact, he walked almost as many times in 2010 (41 in 528 at-bats) as he did in 2009 (42 in 682 at-bats). And despite his horrific batting average and on-base percentage, Hill hit the third-most home runs for 2nd baseman in 2010. He’s slotted to hit 5th behind Bautista and Lind, so there should be plenty of RBI opportunities.

Projection: Even if Hill raises his BABIP to the lower-end of “average”, he’ll still add 50 points to his batting average. He has elite power for his position, and with teams pitching cautiously to Jose Bautista, Hill will get every opportunity to drive in runs. As a 13th round pick, Hill will easily out-perform his draft ranking.

.265 / 31 home runs / 101 RBI’s / 91 runs / 4 steals