Tag: Kelly Johnson

Have Some Faith In Kelly Johnson

Kelly Johnson may be hitting just .176 this year but there is reason for hope.

Analysis: Kelly Johnson’s BABIP this year is 93 points below his career average, so he’s having a bit of an Aaron Hill 2010 season thus far. There is still plenty of time to bounce back and despite all his struggles Johnson still has four bombs and four stolen bases. He is only one of three second baseman in baseball with at least four homers and four swipes and his 14 runs is still good for fourteenth among major league second baseman. There really isn’t a reason why Johnson is available in over thirty percent of fantasy leagues but other owners lack of patience is your gain. Although Johnson did peak last year with a .284 batting average and 26 home runs he’ still on pace for 20 home runs and his BABIP will bounce back. He hits in a great hitter’s park, second base isn’t as deep as everyone thinks it is and when he returns to action Tuesday against the Giants he should return to form. Johnson is still a viable option at second in deeper leagues and is certainly bench worthy in every league.

Projection: Johnson should hit nearly twenty homers and will end up with about fifteen steals. His average should come up into the .240 range, sixty points above what he is hitting now. Have some faith.

Kelly Johnson, J.J. Hardy, Conor Jackson: Power Trends?

All 3 were originally drafted in the 1st or 2nd round and made their MLB Debuts in 2005. All have battled injuries and illness, plus each has had a uniform change. Power-wise what can we expect in 2011?

Facts:

Johnson
Year Age PA HR% SO% BB% AB/HR HR/FB
2009 27 346 0.023 0.156 0.093 37.9 0.061
2010 28 671 0.039 0.221 0.118 22.5 0.107
Career 6 Yrs 2573 0.028 0.20 0.11 31.6 0.078
Hardy
2009 26 465 0.024 0.183 0.093 37.6 0.071
2010 27 375 0.016 0.144 0.075 56.7 0.047
Career 6 Yrs 2673 0.03 0.143 0.081 29.8 0.086
Jackson
2009 27 110 0.009 0.146 0.1 99 0.024
2010 28 241 0.008 0.112 0.129 104 0.021
Career 6 Yrs 2095 0.022 0.114 0.105 39 0.055
MLB Avg 6 Yrs 0.027 0.174 0.085 33.4 0.076

 

HR Park Factor (Handed) Home Park Change From To
Johnson (LH) 2009 95 114
Jackson (RH) 2010 102 77
Hardy (RH) 2011 103 126

 

Analysis: Kelly Johnson is the only one to have above league average power since 2008. His 2010 season looks out of place until you consider that he was healthy and got a nice bump Park Factor wise. Park HR factors indicate Johnson went from 5% below league average to 14% above in the switch last season from Atlanta to Arizona. Note a Park Factor of 100 = league average. Hardy’s HR/AB has been all over the place, but Baltimore’s park should be just what Hardy needs, if healthy, going from 3% above league average to 26%. Hardy did show nice power at shortstop back in 2007 and 2008, with 26 and 24 HR. On the other hand, HR have never been a big part of Jackson’s game and it’s a good thing, as Oakland depresses the HR rate to 77% of league average. Only Johnson was above the league slugging average in 2010. Both Hardy and Johnson are starters in 2010, while watch Jackson’s Spring training for signs of renewed strength, though Oakland has both a crowded starting lineup with veterans and a bench crowded with veterans and prospects alike. Making the team may be the best Jackson can do at this point in his career, but watch for signs of the skills he displayed before injuries took their toll. Remember power wasn’t really there to begin with, though he was still quite young before his career was interrupted.

Projections:

Name Team Pos $ AVG$ R$ RBI$ HR$ SB$ Pos$ AVG R RBI HR SB H AB
J.J. Hardy BAL SS 10 1 0 -1 1 -2 11 0.272 66 61 18 2 130 477
Kelly Johnson ARI 2B 20 1 3 1 1 1 11 0.275 96 77 20 12 162 588
Conor Jackson OAK 1B -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -1 10 0.245 40 37 6 6 75 307

{6-4-3 Assists to Last Player Picked, StatsCorner, and Baseball-Reference}