Tag: Trent Richardson

ADP Watch- RBs Part 3

Trent Richardson has 14 carries this preseason for 34 yards. That is a 2.4 yards per carry average… that just doesn’t cut it.

Analysis: Richardson had 157 carries with the Colts last year and recorded a 2.9 yards per carry average. Among backs with at least 150 carries Richardson ranked last with just one run over twenty yards last season. That one carry for over twenty yards is tied for 68th among all NFL players last season. His lifetime yards per carry average is just  3.3 per.

Allow me to put this in perspective. “Non speedy/power back” Doak Walker Award winners do not have a great history in the NFL. Bam Morris had a career 3.9 yards per carry average. Ron Dayne checks in at 3.8 per, Cedric Benson had a career 3.8 yards per carry average. Obviously guys like Eddie George, Larry Johnson and Ricky Williams had more than just a power game and certainly had vision.

Currently, Richardson is the 21st to 28th back being taken in the 50-60 pick range. He doesn’t have much upside but it is hard to ignore the amount of touches he will be on the end of.

ADP Watch- Trent Richardson

Trent Richardson is the ninth back being taken off the board in standard league mock drafts. His 13.9 ADP is extremely high at this point.

Analysis: Trent Richardson is one impressive back but the stats do not lie when it comes to projecting his numbers this year. The Steelers, Ravens and Bengals’ defenses all finished in the top ten in the NFL last year in rushing yards allowed per game. All three divisional rivals also finished in the top ten in yards per carry against. Add those impressive defenses to a shaky quarterback situation in Cleveland and you have yourself one modest fantasy rookie. Yet many experts want to annoint Richardson as a RB1 but he is just not there yet by no fault of his own of course.

Richardson very well may win offensive rookie of the year this year but RB1 numbers will not be his. Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson are being drafted after Richardson at the moment and smart fantasy owners love this. Michael Turner has rushed for over 1,300 yards and at least 11 TDs each of the past two years and he is the nineteenth back being taken off the board. Is anyone really buying Mike Smith’s comment that Turner will not get 300 touches this year?

Draft Impact- Trent Richardson

Trent Richardson is the best running back to come out of college since Darren McFadden. “Experts” have been feeding the hype machine calling this kid the best back since Adrian Peterson.

Analysis: As much as I love Trent Richardson, he just did not end up in the right situation. First off, take a look at the AFC North defenses. The Ravens, Steelers and Bengals all finished in the top ten in the NFL in rushing yards against per game last year. All three divisional rivals also finished in the top ten in the NFL in yards per carry against. Richardson found himself in the worst possible division to rush the ball, plain and simple. To compound the situation the Cleveland quarterback situation is not solid. Any novice can see that you stack the box against the Browns now and make them beat you in the air.

All these negatives don’t mean he won’t have an offensive rookie of the year campaign but don’t go expecting RB1 type numbers. He will be drafted by some impressionable fantasy owner as a RB1 which means he should not be on your fantasy team this year. The real winner here is Cleveland wide out Greg Little. Little amassed over 700 receiving yards in his rookie year. With all the attention Richardson will receive Little could make a run at 1,000 receiving yards in 2012 if he can limit his drops.