Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson: Solid Buy or Bargain?

Jimenez earned $29 in 2010 and $24 in 2009, while Johnson earned $24 both seasons. Ubaldo threw the Rockies first no-hitter last April and had 15 wins at the Break, while Josh had the lowest NL ERA.

Analysis: Ubaldo is being punished in auctions for 3 cardinal sins- not winning 30 or even 20 games last season; not giving up a normal number of HR; and not breaking down despite suspected pitcher abuse, i.e. 27 games between 100 and 119 pitches, plus another 9 over 119. Jimenez missed 10 days in 2010 and 7 in 2009. On the other hand, Johnson was shut down near the end of the 2010 season for being weary; he had Tommy John Surgery in 2008. Lets look at the two halves of the 2010 season.

Hurler W IP HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
A  <ASG 15 127 6 46 113 2.20 1.05 .198
A  >ASG 4 94.2 4 46 101 3.80 1.30 .223
B <ASG 9 122 4 28 123 1.70 0.96 .203
B >ASG 2 61.2 3 20 63 3.50 1.39 .276

A is Ubaldo; B is Josh. ASG = All Star Game. In the recent CBS Sports Expert Auction Ubaldo was hammered down for $20 and Josh for $25.

Projections:
Jimenez 20 W, 222 IP, 200 K, 3.45 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.
Johnson 15 W, 203 IP, 201 K, 3.38 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP.
Why pay 25% more for Johnson?

Author: James Morgan

Albert Einstein is credited with defining 'insanity' as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.