You have notable bounce back candidates Kemp and Pena competing for your last Freeze Roster slot. Toting up their profits is simple arithmetic, right?
Facts: Pena has steadily dropped from .287/46 HR in 2007 to .196/28 HR last season at age 32. Hamstring and foot injuries obviously contributed to his 2010 decline. His career has seen injuries to 6 other body parts: hand (2), knee (2), and once each- groin, head, thigh, and eye. Weigh those with a change of scenery to the NL Central and Cubbies. Kemp dropped off last season from .297/34 SB/89 RBI to .249/19 SB/89 RBI. His fans only wish it was physical, yet Rihanna, Torre, and Bowa are no longer in the picture, while MLB’s Hoosier response to the NBA’s Larry Bird is a continuing and nurturing presence in Chavez Ravine.
Analysis: You have a simple pre-Freeze profit in each of $5, so it’s a toss up. Right? Well, lets look a little closer. Back of the envelope calculations on your league’s suspected keepers shows a 30% inflation rate at your Auction. Typically, the Roto keeper league inflation rate averages 13%, but we’ve occasionally seen it well beyond 30%. Now what?
Kemp/Pena
$30/$10 Salary
$35/$15 Projected 2011 Value
$5/$5 Pre-Freeze Profit
$23/ $8 Strong Dollar Freeze Salary
$12/$7 Freeze Profit at Weak Dollar Auction
Note: Divide present salary by inflation rate to covert strong Freeze dollars to weak inflated Auction dollars ($30 divided by 130% = $23.)
Kemp is easily the better keeper.
Projections:
Kemp .276/89 R/88 RBI/24 HR/27 SB/612 AB
Pena .220/73 R/87 RBI/29 HR/4 SB/494 AB
{6-4-3 Assist to Marcel}
