Matt Kemp or Carlos Pena: Pick 1 Keeper

You have notable bounce back candidates Kemp and Pena competing for your last Freeze Roster slot. Toting up their profits is simple arithmetic, right?

Facts: Pena has steadily dropped from .287/46 HR in 2007 to .196/28 HR last season at age 32. Hamstring and foot injuries obviously contributed to his 2010 decline. His career has seen injuries to 6 other body parts: hand (2), knee (2), and once each- groin, head, thigh, and eye. Weigh those with a change of scenery to the NL Central and Cubbies. Kemp dropped off last season from .297/34 SB/89 RBI to .249/19 SB/89 RBI. His fans only wish it was physical, yet Rihanna, Torre, and Bowa are no longer in the picture, while MLB’s Hoosier response to the NBA’s Larry Bird is a continuing and nurturing presence in Chavez Ravine.

Analysis: You have a simple pre-Freeze profit in each of $5, so it’s a toss up. Right? Well, lets look a little closer. Back of the envelope calculations on your league’s suspected keepers shows  a 30% inflation rate at your Auction. Typically, the Roto keeper league inflation rate averages 13%, but we’ve occasionally seen it well beyond 30%. Now what?

Kemp/Pena

$30/$10  Salary

$35/$15  Projected 2011 Value

$5/$5      Pre-Freeze Profit

$23/ $8   Strong Dollar Freeze Salary

$12/$7    Freeze Profit at Weak Dollar Auction

Note: Divide present salary by inflation rate to covert strong Freeze dollars to weak inflated Auction dollars ($30 divided by 130% = $23.)

Kemp is easily the better keeper.

Projections:

Kemp .276/89 R/88 RBI/24 HR/27 SB/612 AB

Pena .220/73 R/87 RBI/29 HR/4 SB/494 AB

{6-4-3 Assist to Marcel}

 

 

Author: James Morgan

Albert Einstein is credited with defining 'insanity' as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

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