Issue: Over the last 3 seasons 29 pitchers have won 36 games or more. Only 5 had cumulative ERAs over 4.00: John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Bronson Arroyo, Javier Vazquez. Which ones should we pursue in 2011?
Facts: Arroyo is the only one to have a credible 2010, so he got a 3 year $15 million contract extension, but it was a busy off-season for all 5. Following his first season at Fenway Park Lackey lost 15 pounds, while Vazquez has fled the Bronx for south Florida in 2011. Santana has added a split-finger fastball; Baker had surgery. Let’s go back and look at 2010.
Analysis:
| Lackey | ||||||||
| Split | W | L | ERA | IP | HR | WHIP | SO/9 | SO/BB |
| 1st Half | 9 | 5 | 4.78 | 113 | 10 | 1.602 | 5.4 | 1.48 |
| 2nd Half | 5 | 6 | 3.97 | 102 | 8 | 1.216 | 7.8 | 3.3 |
| Santana | ||||||||
| 1st Half | 8 | 7 | 3.76 | 122 | 15 | 1.303 | 7.4 | 2.78 |
| 2nd Half | 9 | 3 | 4.11 | 100.2 | 12 | 1.341 | 6.2 | 1.86 |
| Baker | ||||||||
| 1st Half | 7 | 8 | 4.87 | 109 | 17 | 1.312 | 7.8 | 5 |
| 2nd Half | 5 | 1 | 3.82 | 61.1 | 6 | 1.402 | 7.8 | 2.21 |
| Arroyo | ||||||||
| 1st Half | 9 | 4 | 4.04 | 120.1 | 13 | 1.23 | 4.3 | 1.41 |
| 2nd Half | 8 | 6 | 3.68 | 95.1 | 16 | 1.038 | 5.9 | 3.5 |
| Vazquez | ||||||||
| 1st Half | 7 | 7 | 4.45 | 95 | 15 | 1.221 | 7.6 | 2.11 |
| 2nd Half | 3 | 3 | 6.64 | 62.1 | 17 | 1.668 | 5.9 | 1.52 |
2011 Projections:
| Hurler | W | ERA | WHIP | K | IP |
| Lackey | 12 | 4.09 | 1.35 | 135 | 181 |
| Santana | 12 | 3.99 | 1.30 | 139 | 174 |
| Baker | 11 | 4.15 | 1.27 | 139 | 169 |
| Arroyo | 13 | 3.98 | 1.26 | 122 | 190 |
| Vazquez | 10 | 4.27 | 1.27 | 141 | 161 |
{6-4-3 Assists to Baseball-Reference and Marcel}
