SPLITS: John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Bronson Arroyo, Javier Vazquez

Issue: Over the last 3 seasons 29 pitchers have won 36 games or more. Only 5 had cumulative ERAs over 4.00: John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, Bronson Arroyo, Javier Vazquez. Which ones should we pursue in 2011?

Facts: Arroyo is the only one to have a credible 2010, so he got a 3 year $15 million contract extension, but it was a busy off-season for all 5. Following his first season at Fenway Park Lackey lost 15 pounds, while Vazquez has fled the Bronx for south Florida in 2011. Santana has added a split-finger fastball; Baker had surgery. Let’s go back and look at 2010.

Analysis:

Lackey
Split W L ERA IP HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
1st Half 9 5 4.78 113 10 1.602 5.4 1.48
2nd Half 5 6 3.97 102 8 1.216 7.8 3.3
Santana
1st Half 8 7 3.76 122 15 1.303 7.4 2.78
2nd Half 9 3 4.11 100.2 12 1.341 6.2 1.86
Baker
1st Half 7 8 4.87 109 17 1.312 7.8 5
2nd Half 5 1 3.82 61.1 6 1.402 7.8 2.21
Arroyo
1st Half 9 4 4.04 120.1 13 1.23 4.3 1.41
2nd Half 8 6 3.68 95.1 16 1.038 5.9 3.5
Vazquez
1st Half 7 7 4.45 95 15 1.221 7.6 2.11
2nd Half 3 3 6.64 62.1 17 1.668 5.9 1.52

 

2011 Projections:

Hurler W ERA WHIP K IP
Lackey 12 4.09 1.35 135 181
Santana 12 3.99 1.30 139 174
Baker 11 4.15 1.27 139 169
Arroyo 13 3.98 1.26 122 190
Vazquez 10 4.27 1.27 141 161

 

{6-4-3 Assists to Baseball-Reference and Marcel}

Author: James Morgan

Albert Einstein is credited with defining 'insanity' as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

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