Issue: Chase Utley turns 32 this season and continues to have health issues. What can we expect in 2011 using the 3 players with the most similar careers in MLB history through their age 31 seasons, namely Jeff Kent, Joe Gordon, and Jim Edmonds.
Facts: Kent played another 9 seasons, Gordon only 4, and Edmonds 8. Those 3 hung up these numbers from their age 32 season till retirement.
| Player | G | AB | R | HR | RBI | BA | SB | |||||
| Kent | 1266 | 4756 | 754 | 216 | 850 | .300 | 45 | |||||
| Gordon | 566 | 2021 | 318 | 100 | 358 | .262 | 21 | |||||
| Edmonds | 1000 | 3189 | 563 | 200 | 573 | .274 | 26 |
Analysis: Health wise we are not as pessimistic as former NYY star Joe Gordon’s shortened career. Kent became superman later in his career, with his 2 best career seasons ahead of him. Kent is the exception here in that regard and not just with these hitters. That leaves us with Edmonds.
Jim Edmonds (age 32) 2002 Actual 476 AB 96R 28HR 83RBI 4SB .311BA
Chase Utley (age 32) 2011 Projection 476 AB 96R 28HR 100RBI 4SB .292BA
We feel Chase will have more RBI in the Philly lineup with less batting average.
{6-4-3 Assists to Bill James and Baseball-Reference for their player similarity scores.}
