Chase Utley’s 2011 Outlook

Issue: Chase Utley turns 32 this season and continues to have health issues. What can we expect in 2011 using the 3 players with the most similar careers in MLB history through their age 31 seasons, namely Jeff Kent, Joe Gordon, and Jim Edmonds.

Facts: Kent played another 9 seasons, Gordon only 4, and Edmonds 8. Those 3 hung up these numbers from their age 32 season till retirement.

Kent 1266 4756 754 216 850 .300 45
Gordon 566 2021 318 100 358 .262 21
Edmonds 1000 3189 563 200 573 .274 26


Analysis: Health wise we are not as pessimistic as former NYY star Joe Gordon’s shortened career. Kent became superman later in his career, with his 2 best career seasons ahead of him. Kent is the exception here in that regard and not just with these hitters. That leaves us with Edmonds.

Jim Edmonds (age 32) 2002 Actual       476 AB  96R  28HR   83RBI   4SB  .311BA

Chase Utley (age 32) 2011 Projection    476 AB  96R  28HR  100RBI  4SB  .292BA

We feel Chase will have more RBI in the Philly lineup with less batting average.

{6-4-3 Assists to Bill James and Baseball-Reference for their player similarity scores.}