Toronto Blue Jays outfielder/third baseman shocked Major League Baseball (and fantasy baseball) by unleashing a majors-best 54 home runs last season, seemingly out of nowhere. How “out of nowhere?”
From 2004-2009: 1754 at-bats, 59 home runs, 211 RBI’s, .729 OPS, 14% home run rate, .3 Wins Above Replacement
2010 season stats: 569 at-bats, 54 home runs, 124 RBI’s, .995 OPS, 36% home run rate, 5.6 Wins Above Replacement
Analysis: Bautista has “one-year wonder” written all over him, at least for that kind of production. Why is that? His home run rate (% of hits that were home runs) was astronomical, even compared to the best power hitter today, Albert Pujols (whose career home run rate is 21.5%). Bautista’s BABIP was an abysmal .233.
The only encouraging stat in terms of continued production from 2010 was his on-base percentage, which was .378. After a terrible April, his K/BB ratio was almost exactly 1:1. Teams will have to respect his patience and power, and unless Aaron Hill and Adam Lind rediscover their stroke, teams will pitch around Bautista. Expect an increase in his stolen bases because of this.
Strategy: There certainly is a place for Bautista, but it’s not in the 4th round where he’s currently drafted in most leagues. Even if his production drops off significantly, he can still hit 30 home runs and drive in 90-100, which are great numbers for a 3rd baseman. He’s currently the 36th player drafted in Yahoo! drafts, ahead of players like Ian Kinsler, CC Sabathia, and Jon Lester, all of which provide more value than Bautista. If he can be had in the late 5th round or later, he’s worth drafting, but not in the 3rd or 4th round.
Prediction: .258 / 33 home runs / 103 RBI’s / 99 runs / 15 steals.
Agreed. Bautista is not going to put up the same numbers as last year. I guess the real question is, who’s the guy that comes out of nowhere with a chance to reach 50hrs this season?