After a historic .248 ISO as 20 year old, Mike Stanton is poised to bring the lumber in 2011 but what exactly should we expect?
Analysis: Mike Stanton hit 22 homers in just 100 big league games last year and he also hit 21 bombs in just 53 Double A games. That’s 43 homers combined as a 20 year old, nearly unheard of. His walk rate of 8.6% with the Marlins wasn’t as expected but it should be around the 12% mark this year which will help his run and stolen base totals. As long as his strikeout rate doesn’t go up from 34.3%, Stanton will hit 35 home runs rather easily. Like many power hitters he’s not going to give you any batting average help in roto leagues but a handful of steals should help ease a batting average that should fall in the .260-.270 range. Stanton is a high reward outfielder with his seemingly limitless home run power so grabbing him over guys like Andre Ethier or Alex Rios who will be down this year may be in order. Don’t be disappointed if Jay Bruce falls into your lap after Stanton goes early. Bruce’s home run potential this year is in the mid thirties.
Projection: I don’t think Stanton is capable of hitting less than 33 homers this year which makes him the low risk outfielder that he is, but I doubt he can reach 45 bombs as a 21 year old with the pitching in the NL East. Expect a .265 BA, 38 HR, 105 RBI, 90 R, 6 SB.