When the Falcons took Julio Jones with the sixth pick of the 2011 NFL draft it changed the fantasy landscape dramatically.
Analysis: With Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez already on board it seems unlikely Jones can put up WR2 numbers or WR3 numbers for that matter. White was targeted a staggering 179 times last year and Gonzo 111 times. I don’t see Jones coming in as a rookie and taking away many targets from those studs but he should bump Michael Jenkins out of the number two receiving role by the start of the season. Jenkins is pretty much a 50 reception, 600 yard type of fantasy receiver and Jones will be able to put up slightly better numbers his rookie year while stretching the defense like Jenkins never could (career 12.7 yards/rec). Jones does have a history of getting banged up far too much for my liking but he has an even bigger reputation as a tough a guy. The impact Jones will have on Matt Ryan cannot be underestimated. He takes Ryan from a stream starter in the Eli, Flacco, Freeman tier to the tenth best fantasy quarterback. Jones isn’t magically going put up a 1,000 yard season and make Ryan a fantasy stud but he will contribute to the overall success of their squad.
Projection: While I’m still taking AJ Green every day of the week over Jones in dynasty/keeper leagues, Jones has the highest ceiling of any rookie wide out this year. Expect 55 receptions, 700 receiving yards and six touchdowns, not quite WR3 numbers. He’ll be long gone in the draft before you can get him at value this year.