Wade Davis may be sporting a 3.47 ERA but there are many reasons to be concerned.
Analysis: Davis’ fastball velocity is down 2 MPH from last year, as well as his slider, curve and change velocities are all down. Davis may have a career 3.89 ERA but his FIP sits at 4.54, that over six tenths of a difference. Davis is also striking out two less batters per nine this year (6 vs. 4.1) and walking nearly one more batter per nine (3.3 vs. 4.1). He’s striking out just as many as he’s walking but he’s still walking around with a 3.47 ERA, incredible. Add in a LOB% of 81.5 which is good for the top twenty among all MLB pitchers and you have a guy just waiting to lose significant value. Davis’ 6.6% HR/FB rate is well below the league average. All in all Davis is a pitcher that appears to be doing just fine but if you take a deeper look you’ll see without a doubt that it’s time to sell the righty before it’s too late.
Projection: Going forward Davis is a 4.00 ERA pitcher with some serious command and velocity issues. He’s only striking out 4.1 batters per nine, you don’t win fantasy leagues with that. Like with Ogando, Hafner, Gomes and Fuld before him, I urge you to sell now.