Jeremy Hellickson may have a 2.64 ERA this year with seven wins but there are some reasons for concern.
Analysis: The twenty-four year old is sporting a 2.64 ERA but keep in mind his FIP is 3.83 while his xFIP is sitting at 4.35. Hellickson’s fastaball velocity is down from last year in the bigs and his minor league average velocity. He’s walking 3.7 batters per nine while striking out a pedestrian 6.4 batters per nine. Hellickson’s 80% LOB rate is good for seventeenth among major league pitchers and his HR/FB rate is at 5.8%, good for eighteenth in the majors. Needless to say he has been one lucky pitcher this year. In keeper leagues, yes, he is a long term top of the rotation stud. However, this year we will be seeing a significant drop off in his performance sooner than later. Hellickson for a struggling ace and some depth on your fantasy squad is a trade you must consider before he loses value. Don’t get me wrong, staying with Hellickson isn’t a bad option at this point but he isn’t what his numbers are indicating. His strike out rates are no where near his minor league numbers and we cannot forget that he has pitched over 120 innings in a year just once in his professional career.
Projection: Hellickson’s ERA should inflate to about 3.5 by the end of the season which means you are getting a slightly better than a middle of the road pitcher the rest of the year. Act accordingly.