Jeremy Hellickson – FantasySP Blog

Deep League Help- Hellickson

Jeremy Hellickson is worth owning in deeper leagues despite his 5.67 ERA.

Analysis: Over the past few years Jeremy Hellickson has been one lucky pitcher if you go by “ERA minus FIP.” This year is completely the opposite. Hellickson’s ERA minus FIP is 1.48 which is third in baseball. A lot of his unlucky and inflated numbers can be attributed to his strand rate of 60%- 18% below his career average and third worst among qualified starters. When his numbers were low over the past years he made a great sell high option now he’s a perfect buy low candidate.

Hellickson’s 1.26 WHIP is 53rd in baseball this year and ahead of guys like Cole Hamels and Justin Verlander. His walk rate is also 25th best in baseball. His xFIP is a respectable 4.03 and ahead of guys like Dan Haren, Wandy Rodriguez, Matt Moore and Ian Kennedy. He’s not a fantasy baseball savior but he can help your ratios and he isn’t bad in the strikeout department either. He has 66 K’s this year which is 53rd among all pitchers and 26th in the American League.

Hellickson is not as bad as his 5.67 ERA, expect a 4.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP going forward.

Selling High- Jeremy Hellickson

Jeremy Hellickson is sporting a 2.77 ERA and a 4-0 record this year. So, why are we selling him?

Analysis: Jeremy Hellickson’s FIP is 4.78 this year while his ERA sits at 2.77. He actually leads the league in ERA minus FIP this year by quite a large margin. To further his seemingly good stat line is his left on base percentage of 88.1%, which is third in all of baseball. You cannot sustain an 88.1 LOB% over the course of a season. To put it in perspective, Roy Halladay’s career LOB% is 73.6 and it is 71.4% this year. Jeremy Hellickson is a solid pitcher with an excellent changeup, however, a sub 3.5 ERA is not going to happen this year.

It’s time to sell Hellickson as soon as possible. He isn’t a strikeout machine and his numbers will fall back down to earth sooner or later. Even his BABIP against is at .233 which is thirteenth best or luckiest(which ever you prefer) in baseball this year. Again, to put it in perspective, Roy Halladay’s career BABIP against is .292 and .280 this year. All signs point to selling and selling high here.

Jeremy Hellickson Is Overrated

Jeremy Hellickson may have a 2.64 ERA this year with seven wins but there are some reasons for concern.

Analysis: The twenty-four year old is sporting a 2.64 ERA but keep in mind his FIP is 3.83 while his xFIP is sitting at 4.35. Hellickson’s fastaball velocity is down from last year in the bigs and his minor league average velocity. He’s walking 3.7 batters per nine while striking out a pedestrian 6.4 batters per nine. Hellickson’s 80% LOB rate is good for seventeenth among major league pitchers and his HR/FB rate is at 5.8%, good for eighteenth in the majors. Needless to say he has been one lucky pitcher this year. In keeper leagues, yes, he is a long term top of the rotation stud. However, this year we will be seeing a significant drop off in his performance sooner than later. Hellickson for a struggling ace and some depth on your fantasy squad is a trade you must consider before he loses value. Don’t get me wrong, staying with Hellickson isn’t a bad option at this point but he isn’t what his numbers are indicating. His strike out rates are no where near his minor league numbers and we cannot forget that he has pitched over 120 innings in a year just once in his professional career.

Projection: Hellickson’s ERA should inflate to about 3.5 by the end of the season which means you are getting a slightly better than a middle of the road pitcher the rest of the year. Act accordingly.