Selling High- Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin may have eight wins and has been Colorado’s most consistent starter this year but he is due for a drop in performance.

Analysis: Jhoulys Chacin is a solid four pitch pitcher with a plus slider and a plus curve. Chacin will develop into a respectable middle tier fantasy starter one day but not this year. Chacin’s ERA-FIP is -1.15 this year, fourth among all MLB pitchers. He may be sporting a sub three ERA but his FIP of 3.86 suggests his luck should run out. Chacin’s strand rate is over eighty percent, up seven percent over his career average and well above the league average. One must also be concerned that when his luck runs out his sub 8K/9 rate isn’t what you signed up for. Chacin sported a K/9 rate over nine each of his first two years in the bigs while this year it hovers just below eight. There is a ton to love about this righty but as well all know Coors Field isn’t the best place to pitch. His ERA at home is actually .64 lower than on the road and that will positively even out by season’s end.

Projection: You might as well sell Chacin at his current value unless you don’t mind a drop off in performance. His ERA in his remaining starts should be in the 3.8-4.0 range. Act accordingly.

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