Melky Cabrera is leading the National League in hitting with a .374 batting average but it will not last for long.
Analysis: Melky Cabrera’s .415 BABIP is the fourth highest in all of baseball and is .108 points above his career average. Thus, he’s due for a big drop off. Cabrera’s walk and strikeout rates this year are virtually identical to his career averages so he isn’t improving in those areas. He is coming off of a career year which saw him hit .305 with 18 HR, 102 R and 87 RBI for the Royals. However, 2011 was a bit inflated as well. His BABIP was still .25 points above his career average and it was his only season as a professional that he has hit over .280. Cabrera’s power is peaking, I’ll give you that but he isn’t a .310-.320 type of hitter. He does just about all of his damage off of fastballs and he’s still swinging at too many balls outside of the strike zone(32.3%).
The Melk Man’s fantasy value will not get any higher and now is the perfect time to capitalize on those owners who just cannot resist the flavor of the week. Expect a .290 batting average going forward to go along with eight to ten more home runs and ten steals.