Big Start For Lincecum

Tim Lincecum has his third start of the season Tuesday night against Josh Beckett and the Dodgers.

Analysis: Lincecum isn’t off to the best start but there is reason to be hopeful. Through two starts this year he has allowed 11 runs in 10.0 innings. But… he has 12 strikeouts to 1 walk in those 10.0 innings. His xFIP is 2.43 which indicates that he hasn’t been truly awful as one would suspect. Lincecum’s career HR/FB rate sits at 9.2% and it was 12.1% last season. This year his HR per FB rate is at 40%…. completely unsustainable.

The twenty-nine year old is losing velocity yearly but his changeup is still top notch and his slider remains a borderline plus pitch. Keep in mind that Lincecum did have a good year last year from a sabermetric point of view- 3.56 xFIP, 8.79 K/9 and 1.6 WAR.

Currently, Tim Lincecum  is available in 15-50% of fantasy leagues. Even if he gets lit up Tuesday night it still may be time to buy low. He’s striking batters out, limiting his walks and he’s throwing tons of first pitch strikes. It’s not time to give up on Timmy but it is a very big start for him Tuesday night.

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