Buying Low- Buchholz

Clay Buchholz allowed 3 earned runs in 6.0 innings of work on Thursday afternoon against the Twins. Buchholz is now sporting a 6.17 ERA this season through 8 starts.

Analysis: The 6.17 ERA isn’t as bad as everyone is making it out to be. His xFIP is 4.24 this season and 4.10 for his career. We have to take a look at what is causing the inflated ERA.

First off, Buchholz’s strand rate is 64% this year and 73% for his career. That can be improved upon easily. Also, Buchholz’s BABIP is at a career high this year at .385, his career average is 100 points lower at .285. This is also another issue that should naturally work itself out. Buchholz is back to throwing at the same velocity he was last year and the strikeouts are gradually coming back. He has stuck out 14 batters in his last 16.2 innings pitched and now has his K/9 rate over 7 batters per nine which is slightly above his career average.

It is apparent that Clay Buchholz doesn’t have his best stuff at the moment but he still makes a solid lower tier fantasy option. He is available in 30-60% of fantasy leagues.

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