Selling High- Vargas

Jason Vargas has a 3.25 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP this season. He’s also a thirty-one year old with a career 4.20 ERA, 4.58 xFIP and 1.31 WHIP.

Analysis: Yes, Jason Vargas is having a fine season but he will not sustain it. The 3.25 ERA is nice but his xFIP is 4.09. Vargas’ strikeout rate of 6.4 K/9 is average for a fantasy starter but there are other areas of concern. His strand rate is 8% above his career average and his fastball velocity is down which isn’t surprising considering he is 10th in baseball in pitches per game at 104.7 per. Over his last five starts he has averaged 109 pitches per start. In short- he is due for a drop off sooner than later.

This is the perfect time to maximize value/return on a fantasy pitcher with good numbers through 99.2 innings on 15 starts. Even when using the eye test he just doesn’t impress unlike an Edwin Jackson type(who by the way has a 5.12 ERA/3.65 xFIP with 83 K’s in 84 IP). Currently, Jason Vargas is available in 20-60% of fantasy leagues.

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