Michael Gould

It’s time to buy low on Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter had arguably the worst season of his career at the plate in 2010. His .270 batting average was 40 points below his career average, his 10 home runs tied for the fewest in a season, his slugging percentage was the lowest of his career, and he struck out the most times since 2005. His advanced metrics were down too. His BABIP was a career-low, as was his runs created per-game and line-drive percentage. He also led the league in outs created.

So it’s a great time to buy low on the New York Yankee captain.

Analysis: Jeter can still hit. His batting average from 2005-2009 was .322, 50 points better than 2010. If Girardi has any sense, he’ll lead off with Brett Gardner and let Jeter hit 2nd. Jeter has made an adjustment to his swing from last season which will hopefully help his strikeout numbers.

Beyond the top three shortstops (Ramirez, Tulowitzki, and Reyes), there are nothing but question marks. Jeter will hit atop baseball’s most potent lineup, and has all the skills to bounce back from a sub-par year.

What’s encouraging is Jeter’s contact percentage in 2010 was the same as his career average, but his BABIP was 50 points lower than his career average, meaning he was a victim of bad luck more than anything else. If his stats normalize to their career averages in 2011, Jeter should far exceed his 6th round draft status. He’s currently going for only $25 in auction drafts, and can easily outperform that value.

Projection: .311 / 14 home runs / 70 RBI’s / 22 steals / 110 runs scored

What do you think? Will Jeter bounce back from the worst season of his career? Or is he finally on the way down?

The Jose Bautista Dilemma

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder/third baseman shocked Major League Baseball (and fantasy baseball) by unleashing a majors-best 54 home runs last season, seemingly out of nowhere. How “out of nowhere?”

From 2004-2009: 1754 at-bats, 59 home runs, 211 RBI’s, .729 OPS, 14% home run rate, .3 Wins Above Replacement

2010 season stats: 569 at-bats, 54 home runs, 124 RBI’s, .995 OPS, 36% home run rate, 5.6 Wins Above Replacement

Analysis: Bautista has “one-year wonder” written all over him, at least for that kind of production. Why is that? His home run rate (% of hits that were home runs) was astronomical, even compared to the best power hitter today, Albert Pujols (whose career home run rate is 21.5%). Bautista’s BABIP was an abysmal .233.

The only encouraging stat in terms of continued production from 2010 was his on-base percentage, which was .378. After a terrible April, his K/BB ratio was almost exactly 1:1. Teams will have to respect his patience and power, and unless Aaron Hill and Adam Lind rediscover their stroke, teams will pitch around Bautista. Expect an increase in his stolen bases because of this.

Strategy: There certainly is a place for Bautista, but it’s not in the 4th round where he’s currently drafted in most leagues. Even if his production drops off significantly, he can still hit 30 home runs and drive in 90-100, which are great numbers for a 3rd baseman. He’s currently the 36th player drafted in Yahoo! drafts, ahead of players like Ian Kinsler, CC Sabathia, and Jon Lester, all of which provide more value than Bautista. If he can be had in the late 5th round or later, he’s worth drafting, but not in the 3rd or 4th round.

Prediction: .258 / 33 home runs / 103 RBI’s / 99 runs / 15 steals.

Rockies’ Carlos Gonzalez is Underrated

Carlos Gonzalez, a consensus 1st-round pick is underrated? Absolutely.

In Yahoo! standard drafts, his Average Draft Position (ADP) is 8.7. Over at MockDraftCentral his ADP is 6.8. However, a case will be made to draft him 4th overall.

The top three players in almost every fantasy draft will be Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, and Miguel Cabrera, and probably in that order. They will be followed by Votto, Longoria, and Tulowitzki in some order. But Gonzalez offers a unique fantasy package that should go #4 in your draft. There are many viable fantasy options in the outfield, but Gonzalez offers true 5-category potential, more than any other player.

Analysis: Forget the Coors’ Field Factor. Gonzalez was far better at Coors Field (by a whopping 386 points in OPS), but the more impressive (and park-neutral) split is when he it 3rd in the lineup vs. leadoff.

Batting leadoff (44 games): .290, .785 OPS, 8 home runs, 22 RBI’s – 90 total bases
Batting third ( 90 games) : .358, 1.067 OPS, 25 home runs, 80 RBI’s – 241 total bases

To put that in perspective, Gonzalez has more total bases in 90 games batting third than Joe Mauer, Jason Heyward, or Scott Rolen had for their entire seasons. And remember, that .358 batting average is park-neutral and includes data from both home and away games, not just at Coors Field. Over a full season, Gonzalez could put up numbers that rival Larry Walker’s epic 1997 season. Draft him 4th (or even 3rd if you don’t have a “fifth” of confidence in Miguel Cabrera)

Projection: .345 / 44 home runs / 130 RBI’s / 110 runs / 28 steals – and a #1 ranking going into next season.

Hamilton Prefers Center Field – Stats Say Otherwise

Josh Hamilton recently said he’d prefer to play center field over left field. His reason is music to baseball purists’ ears:

“”I love to play defense more than anything. I love taking away from other people — not in a bad-guy sense, just having fun. Center field gives you more opportunities to do that.” – Josh Hamilton

Hamilton is an excellent center fielder. He’s robbed many players of extra-base hits and home runs. He’s thrown out runners on base, and keeps some runners from even trying to take that extra base. However he’s hurt himself crashing into walls the last two seasons, costing him (and fantasy owners) 102 games over the last two season. Despite an MVP-performance, missing the entire month of September was critical for many fantasy owners on the brink of championships.

Moving to left field from center will help keep Hamilton healthy, and focus more on hitting. Over his four-year pro career, Hamilton has hit much better as a left fielder than a center fielder (park factors not included).

Left Field (97 games): .369 BA and 1.103 OPS

Center Field (270 games): .287 BA and .847 OPS

His home run and RBI numbers are substantially better playing left field as well (extrapolated over 162 games)

Left Field: 45 home runs and 131 RBI’s,

Center Field: 28 home runs and 99 RBI’s

As a fantasy owner, which position would you prefer Hamilton to play?

Who knows why Hamilton hits better playing left? Left field is less physically demanding than center, but like Charlie Sheen, Josh Hamilton has one speed, “Go.”

“Ham-bone” won’t sneak up on anyone this season as he’s the 4th outfielder drafted on average, and is a steal in the mid-to-late second round. He won’t play 162 games. He probably won’t get to 150 games. But playing left for 135 games would produce the following line:

Projection: .340 BA / 37 home runs / 120 RBI’s / 102 runs / 8 steals.

Rangers shuffle lineup, Andrus to benefit

Manager Ron Washington has re-aligned the Texas Rangers lineup, with Ian Kinsler slated to lead off and Elvis Andrus to hit 2nd. Michael Young will hit 6th.

Analysis: Andrus’s line from 2010 was deceivingly mediocre. He only hit .265, but his 32 steals and 88 runs were encouraging. So why is a player with his speed being moved to the #2 spot? Well, all of Andrus’s metrics from the lead-off spot were terrible. He led off in 134 games, and hit an anemic .136 with a .200 OBP in the first inning. Also, Andrus hit only .230 with a .304 OBP with the bases empty, and only .148 the first time he saw a starting pitcher.

However, for whatever inexplicable reasons, with runners on base, Andrus became a dynamic hitter. With men on, Andrus hit .339 and his on-base percentage soared to .420. With runners in scoring position, he was even better, hitting .347 with a .440 OBP. Andrus’s BABIP climbed over .400 in those situations, versus a ho-hum .277 with the bases empty.

So that’s a lot of stats to say that Andrus was a better hitter with men on base than leading off, but manager Ron Washington’s decision to move a player with Andrus’s speed out of the lead-off spot warranted explanation. However, he’s only 22 years old and his potential is through the roof. The move to the 2nd spot will help his batting average and RBI’s, but without extra-base power, it will still be a limited number of RBI’s.

Andrus is currently the 99th player drafted in standard drafts, and his average auction price is $8.6. That’s a little too high for a 2-category player in standard drafts, but just about right for auction.

Prediction: .282 / 94 runs / 2 home runs / 64 RBI’s, 34 steals.