Deep League Help- Tyler Colvin

Tyler Colvin is loving life in Colorado as he continues to mash his way onto many fantasy rosters.

Analysis:¬†Tyler Colvin is slugging .759 at home this year, so we might as well call him Carlos Gonzalez Jr. In fact, seven of Colvin’s eight home runs were hit at Coors Field. Even though he only slugs .384 away from home, his average away from Coors Field is a respectable .274.

Colvin isn’t going to walk much and he does strike out a ton but 30 RBI in 57 games and a .306 batting average is hard to come by on the wire. Keep in mind that Colvin has first base position eligibility in addition to his time in the outfield. He’s available in over ninety percent of leagues and in the deeper ones he is almost certainly a useful commodity. Colvin’s BABIP is inflated so his average will drop but he should continue to hit bomb after bomb at Coors Field along with CarGo and Dexter Fowler. Although Colvin is competing with numerous Colorado players for at-bats, he remains a better fantasy option than Tyler Moore and Seth Smith.

Dexter Fowler Is Going Fast

If Dexter Fowler is available in your fantasy league you must pick him up now.

Analysis: Dexter Fowler is playing the best baseball of his career and his numbers are reflecting it. Fowler has three bombs, two steals and twelve runs in his last six games. He already has eight home runs to go along with five stolen bases and a 20/20 season is within reach for the twenty-six year old. Fowler is available in a little less than half of fantasy leagues but he is one hot commodity at the moment. He really isn’t just a “sell high” guy here, he will be producing from here on out.

Keep in mind that all eight of his homers this year have come when he’s batted left handed. He’s absolutely murdering right handed pitchers to the tune of a .329 BA and a .718 SLG%. Like Carlos Gonzalez he does most of his damage at home but who really cares if he is producing and growing? In daily lineups you can maximize Fowler by starting him when he’s playing at Coors Field or against right handed pitchers.

Keep An Eye On Dexter Fowler

Dexter Fowler was called up from Triple A to play center field for Carlos Goanzalez Friday night. Gonzalez is still not completely healthy with a nagging right wrist injury.

Analysis: Dexter Fowler has been on fire in Triple A recently, batting nearly at the .400 mark over the last two weeks. The tools have always been there for Fowler and it’s what makes him such an interesting fantasy player. Whether he goes back down to Triple A when CarGo gets healthy or finds himself as the Rockies fourth outfielder you have to keep an eye on Fowler. If the cards fall the right way he may have a starting job sooner than later. Fowler’s 27 stolen base rookie year was not even close to what he is capable of and it appears he has found his groove. He went 1-3 with two runs and a stolen base Friday night against the Brewers. He also recorded a walk and went without a strikeout. If Fowler can stop trying to mash the ball and cut down his strikeout rate, simply by putting the ball in play he becomes a serious weapon. Fowler does have some pop and gets tons of triples so he can be roster worthy if given consistent at bats.

Rockies’ Carlos Gonzalez is Underrated

Carlos Gonzalez, a consensus 1st-round pick is underrated? Absolutely.

In Yahoo! standard drafts, his Average Draft Position (ADP) is 8.7. Over at MockDraftCentral his ADP is 6.8. However, a case will be made to draft him 4th overall.

The top three players in almost every fantasy draft will be Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, and Miguel Cabrera, and probably in that order. They will be followed by Votto, Longoria, and Tulowitzki in some order. But Gonzalez offers a unique fantasy package that should go #4 in your draft. There are many viable fantasy options in the outfield, but Gonzalez offers true 5-category potential, more than any other player.

Analysis: Forget the Coors’ Field Factor. Gonzalez was far better at Coors Field (by a whopping 386 points in OPS), but the more impressive (and park-neutral) split is when he it 3rd in the lineup vs. leadoff.

Batting leadoff (44 games): .290, .785 OPS, 8 home runs, 22 RBI’s – 90 total bases
Batting third ( 90 games) : .358, 1.067 OPS, 25 home runs, 80 RBI’s – 241 total bases

To put that in perspective, Gonzalez has more total bases in 90 games batting third than Joe Mauer, Jason Heyward, or Scott Rolen had for their entire seasons. And remember, that .358 batting average is park-neutral and includes data from both home and away games, not just at Coors Field. Over a full season, Gonzalez could put up numbers that rival Larry Walker’s epic 1997 season. Draft him 4th (or even 3rd if you don’t have a “fifth” of confidence in Miguel Cabrera)

Projection: .345 / 44 home runs / 130 RBI’s / 110 runs / 28 steals – and a #1 ranking going into next season.

Carlos Gonzalez Is Not A Top Ten Pick

After a .336 AVG, 34 HR, 26 SB year the hype machine just won’t stop with CarGo and almost all experts are tagging him as a top ten pick.

Analysis: Gonzalez hit .380 and hit 26 of his 34 homers at home last year. That stat alone should raise the red flag on his consistency issues. His BABIP was an unsustainable .384 and should come down at least thirty points to even out his average to about .300. Gonzalez’s plate discipline is also a concern, he’s swinging at 37% of pitches outside of the strike zone. To put this into perspective, Alfonso Soriano’s career O-Swing percentage is 35%. The bottom line is CarGo isn’t a top ten player due to an inflated batting average and an unsustainble output at home in 2010.

Projection: Gonzalez is no doubt a top 12-15 player because he’s a five category stud but the batting average and power numbers will take a hit this year. Expect a .295 AVG, 28 HR, 22 SB at a relatively deep outfield position in 2011.