Author: TJ Streett

Aaron Hill Is Under The Radar

Toronto second baseman Aaron Hill is now three games into his return from a hamstring injury and he is flying under many fantasy owner’s radars.

Analysis: Yes, Aaron Hill had an awful 2010 campaign with a sub .200 BABIP but he is one of the premier power hitting second baseman in the game. He’s averaged 31 homers over the last two seasons so it is surprising to see him available in so many fantasy leagues across the country. Hill has yet to homer in seventy-five at bats this season but it’s hard to blame him since it’s difficult to find any rhythm with his recent injury. Hill will be fine, Toronto has a solid lineup and he hits homers in bunches. This is a perfect opportunity to either pluck Aaron Hill up off the waiver wire or to buy the slugger at a discounted price. He’s still capable of posting twenty homers by season’s end and his run and RBI totals will be more than solid the rest of the way. Hill is pressing a bit at the plate and is striking out a bit above his career average but we can deal with the strikeouts when his power surfaces.

Projection: He’s never been a friend of your batting average in roto leagues but that isn ‘t why you’d want to own the second baseman. Expect a .250 BA, 17 HR, 50 R, 50 RBI and five plus steals the rest of the season. His value will not get lower.

Have Some Faith In Kelly Johnson

Kelly Johnson may be hitting just .176 this year but there is reason for hope.

Analysis: Kelly Johnson’s BABIP this year is 93 points below his career average, so he’s having a bit of an Aaron Hill 2010 season thus far. There is still plenty of time to bounce back and despite all his struggles Johnson still has four bombs and four stolen bases. He is only one of three second baseman in baseball with at least four homers and four swipes and his 14 runs is still good for fourteenth among major league second baseman. There really isn’t a reason why Johnson is available in over thirty percent of fantasy leagues but other owners lack of patience is your gain. Although Johnson did peak last year with a .284 batting average and 26 home runs he’ still on pace for 20 home runs and his BABIP will bounce back. He hits in a great hitter’s park, second base isn’t as deep as everyone thinks it is and when he returns to action Tuesday against the Giants he should return to form. Johnson is still a viable option at second in deeper leagues and is certainly bench worthy in every league.

Projection: Johnson should hit nearly twenty homers and will end up with about fifteen steals. His average should come up into the .240 range, sixty points above what he is hitting now. Have some faith.

Draft Impact- Cam Newton

Cam Newton figures to be the starting quarterback for the Panthers on day one but is he a legit QB2 this year?

Analysis: Even without DeAngelo Williams the Panthers still have a solid ground game with Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson. Newton, like Sam Bradford before him will not be asked to win games just limit mistakes. Obviously, Newton’s greatest asset is his legs and a potential 500 rushing yard year is not out of the question. A 500 yard season on the ground would easily put him into low end QB2 status with the potential for more. However, Newton’s decision making and defensive recognition is suspect so you can expect just as many passing touchdowns to interceptions. In dynasty/keeper leagues you really have to pass on a guy that more than likely will never throw for more than 3,600 yards and seems to be a glorified version of Vince Young. Guys like Josh Freeman and Aaron Rodgers put up more than solid rushing numbers for a quarterback but at least they can throw it without question. There is only one Mike Vick and Newton isn’t him. Newton does have slightly more talent than Vince Young but he is years behind in terms of polish when each came out of school early.

Projection: Look for Newton to pass for 2,500 yards with up to 500 rushing yards. Twenty total touchdowns is possible but expect twenty picks. He’s an extremely low end QB2 this year but could wind up being a top 18 quarterack by year’s end.

Draft Impact- Daniel Thomas

Many experts are already tagging Miami’s new running back as a fantasy star, but is he?

Analysis: The Dolphins will not start the 2011 season with Daniel Thomas as their primary back so these “experts” will have to back off of their claims (eventually). The Dolphins will try to resign Ronnie Brown although it may be a lost cause. DeAngelo Williams remains on the market as well as guys like Cedric Benson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Ahmad Bradshaw as well as RFA Mike Tolbert and Willis McGahee when he refuses to take a pay cut. In short, there are plenty of viable running backs on the market and the Dolphins must sign one of them. Miami ran the ball the eleventh most times last year but only managed a 3.7 yards per carry average, second worst in the NFL. The Dolphins turned Brandon Marshall from a 10 touchdown, 101 reception receiver into a 3 touchdown, 86 reception low end WR2. Do you really think Thomas will step in and become the best fantasy rookie? I thought not. “Experts” can say all they want about how Daniel Thomas will be the best rookie this year now but when the chips fall and he continues struggling with pass protection and blitz pick up and Miami sign a legit back they’ll have a new flavor of the week to drool over.

Projection: It doesn’t matter who the other running back will be for Miami, Daniel Thomas will not be their primary back this year. The fifth running back off the board in this year’s draft isn’t going to make a run first team who averaged the second worst yards per carry in the NFL last year any better. Expect 140 carries and nothing more.

Draft Impact- Mikel Leshoure

One of the best picks in the second round of the NFL Draft was the selection of Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure by the Detroit Lions. Jahvid Best is a great back to have in PPR leagues but he isn’t a twenty carry per game back.

Analysis: The only knock on Jahvid Best last year was his lingering turf toe injury. Besides battling with that injury for more than half of the season Best still caught a staggering 58 balls and put up 1,042 total yards. Best is still the most talented back in Detroit but the addition of 230 pound bruiser Mikel Leshoure makes the Lions one of the deepest offensive teams in the NFC. Best is still the man in passing situations but Leshoure will become the go to goal line back of choice. We also cannot ignore 31 year old back Maurice Morris who scored five touchdowns in the final six games of the 2010 season but he will drop to third on the depth chart. With Leshoure you have a poor man’s Rashard Mendenhall and that’s not a bad thing. Leshoure will pound the rock and hit pay dirt nearly as much as Jahvid Best.

Projection: Jahvid Best seems to be a lock for 60 receptions and 1,200 total yards this year. Mikel Leshoure will be the short yardage workhorse and should receive 150-180 carries. Expect 700 rushing yards with six scores from Leshoure in 2011. In the long term he may well develop into a borderline RB2/RB3. This year he makes a great insurance policy on Best in the later rounds.