Author: TJ Streett

Draft Impact- Jonathan Baldwin

The Chiefs selected 6’5″, 230 pound Jonathan Baldwin with the 26th pick of the 2011 NFL Draft. This pick just may take the Chiefs to the next level but it’s more likely that Baldwin follows the career path of one James Hardy.

Analysis: If you take a look at the positives you just may find yourself liking Jonathan Baldwin more and more. Outside of Dwayne Bowe and his 132 targets no other Chief wide out was targeted more than 43 times. Unless things go absolutely wrong at training camp, Baldwin should slot right into the number two receiver role in Kansas City. Baldwin does have 4.5 speed so he should be able to become a deep threat but his 42 inch vertical to go along with his 6’5″ frame is exactly why he was drafted in the first round. The Chiefs still remain a run first team at least while Thomas Jones is still in town so don’t get overly excited. Matt Cassel isn’t a slouch at quarterback so Baldwin should be getting some catchable balls but the question remains- is Baldwin the next James Hardy or is he a souped up version of Plaxico Burress? In dynasty leagues I’m taking the obvious guys along with Greg Little and Leonard Hankerson (needs a QB) before I’m taking Baldwin.

Projection: Baldwin is barely relevant in fantasy leagues this year. Expect 40 receptions, 480 yards and a few scores.

Draft Impact- Mark Ingram

The Saints’ selection of Mark Ingram with the 28th pick of the 2011 NFL Draft was certainly a curveball in the fantasy world.

Analysis: As talented as Pierre Thomas is he hasn’t carried the rock 150 times in a season, ever. He’s a solid option in PPR leagues but he also hasn’t played a full sixteen games in a season either. Enter rookie Chris Ivory last year and you have a solid 225 pound goal line back who on 137 carries averaged 5.2 yards per carry. However, there are two big question marks with Ivory. How well will he recover from surgery to repair his Lisfranc injury and can he get his fumble issues under control (4 fumbles, 2 lost, 137 carries)? We all know Mark Ingram has protected the ball better than anyone in college football in recent memory and his hands are solid for third down passing situations. The questions with Ingram will be how many touches will he be on the end of and where should he go in fantasy drafts? Like many rookies he will go way before he should in fantasy drafts, but on the positive side he should get 160-180 carries and maintain value in PPR leagues.

Projection: He’s not quite a RB3 yet but he should be good for 750 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards and seven scores. His upside will be when Thomas gets injured, so he’s a great back for your bench.

Draft Impact- Julio Jones

When the Falcons took Julio Jones with the sixth pick of the 2011 NFL draft it changed the fantasy landscape dramatically.

Analysis: With Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez already on board it seems unlikely Jones can put up WR2 numbers or WR3 numbers for that matter. White was targeted a staggering 179 times last year and Gonzo 111 times. I don’t see Jones coming in as a rookie and taking away many targets from those studs but he should bump Michael Jenkins out of the number two receiving role by the start of the season. Jenkins is pretty much a 50 reception, 600 yard type of fantasy receiver and Jones will be able to put up slightly better numbers his rookie year while stretching the defense like Jenkins never could (career 12.7 yards/rec). Jones does have a history of getting banged up far too much for my liking but he has an even bigger reputation as a tough a guy. The impact Jones will have on Matt Ryan cannot be underestimated. He takes Ryan from a stream starter in the Eli, Flacco, Freeman tier to the tenth best fantasy quarterback. Jones isn’t magically going put up a 1,000 yard season and make Ryan a fantasy stud but he will contribute to the overall success of their squad.

Projection: While I’m still taking AJ Green every day of the week over Jones in dynasty/keeper leagues, Jones has the highest ceiling of any rookie wide out this year. Expect 55 receptions, 700 receiving yards and six touchdowns, not quite WR3 numbers. He’ll be long gone in the draft before you can get him at value this year.

Broxton Still The Closer

After General Manager Ned Colleti said he was removing Jonathan Broxton from the closer’s role following a blown save against the Marlins, Manager Don Mattingly has endorsed Broxton as the team’s closer.

Analysis: Broxton will still be the closer but he is suffering with elbow soreness. Broxton hasn’t pitched well this year but he has only blown one save. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up but we have to accept the fact that Broxton isn’t an elite closer, he’s just a high strikeout closer. What really is concerning is his velocity- it’s down across the board. You really cannot drop him at this point but it would serve you well to go closer shopping on the wire. When Broxton gets his act together for a stretch you should sell high. The only case where I would consider keeping the right hander would be if his fastball and slider velocity return to form. Patience in this case is key. He is capable of top ten closer numbers but he may not have the job down the road either.

Projection: If Broxton can get his act together expect 27 saves, 75 K’s, 3.6 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.

Is Randy Wolf For Real?

Randy Wolf is now 3-0 is his last three starts pitching 20 innings and allowing just one earned run. Wolf has also struck out 29 batters this year, ninth best in the National League but is this guy for real?

Analysis: To put it simply…no. While I love his career 7.2 K/9, Wolf is just a decent innings eater who shouldn’t blow up your roto ratios. Wolf’s left on base percentage is sitting at 80 percent, a career high and six percent above his career average. Wolf may also have a nice 2.64 ERA but his FIP is a pedestrian 4.16. It really is a mixed bag with Wolf. He’s going to strike out a lot of batters and he doesn’t walk many (2.3 BB/9) but he is prone to giving up big inning and his streaky nature deters me from endorsing him as anything other than a bottom tier fantasy starter. I have been impressed with his slider’s command and bite but he’s still throwing the same soft stuff every fifth day. His next scheduled start is against Houston this Saturday and after that I would consider trading the flavor of the week before a four inning, six earned run outing rears its ugly head.

Projection: Randy Wolf will put up numbers very similar to his last year with the Brewers- 13 wins, a four plus ERA and about 160 K’s.