Author: TJ Streett

Big Start For E-Jax

Edwin Jackson makes his tenth start of the season tonight against the San Diego Padres.

Analysis: The thirty year old Jackson has always been known for his plus slider and erratic command. This year he still has the slider working and he has an 8.12 K/9 rate as a result but with minimal command issues. The knock on E-Jax has been his consistency but he has actually been a consistent and productive starter over the last few seasons. His xFIP has been south of 4.00 over the last four years and he’s pitched at least 175 plus innings each year during that span. Jackson is also striking out more than seven batters per nine over the last four years despite a loss in velocity.

Thus far this season Jackson has a 3.98 ERA, 3.64 xFIP and a 1.34 WHIP. Jackson has been hot as of late- he has 23 strikeouts in his last 20.0 innings pitched and he’s only allowed 4 earned runs in that three game span. His ERA and WHIP are stable but the strikeouts are worth it.

Edwin Jackson is available in 75-90% of fantasy leagues.

Bedard Watch- 2014

Every year Erik Bedard teases us fantasy owners with some of his brilliant pitching.

Analysis: This year Erik Bedard has been special through six starts. He is currently the thirteenth rated fantasy stater over the last two weeks of the season. He has a 2.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.12 K/9 through 32.1 innings of work. He has been his usual self- walking about four batters per nine innings and throwing his fastball and cutter in the high 80s. Bedard has allowed just two earned runs in his last four starts.

But… we have to consider the red flags as well. His xFIP is 4.96, his FIP is solid at 3.11. His HR/FB ratio is 9% below his career average at… 0%(he hasn’t allowed a home run in 32.1 innings this year). His strand rate is sustainable so there aren’t any issues there.

Erik Bedard is available in 95-99% of fantasy leagues. That number is a bit high for a pitcher who has only allowed two earned runs over his last four starts. He has to improve the strikeouts a bit and limit the walks for more consistent quality starts. He’s an “add at your own risk” guy but he still has middle tier upside.

Buying Low- Buchholz

Clay Buchholz allowed 3 earned runs in 6.0 innings of work on Thursday afternoon against the Twins. Buchholz is now sporting a 6.17 ERA this season through 8 starts.

Analysis: The 6.17 ERA isn’t as bad as everyone is making it out to be. His xFIP is 4.24 this season and 4.10 for his career. We have to take a look at what is causing the inflated ERA.

First off, Buchholz’s strand rate is 64% this year and 73% for his career. That can be improved upon easily. Also, Buchholz’s BABIP is at a career high this year at .385, his career average is 100 points lower at .285. This is also another issue that should naturally work itself out. Buchholz is back to throwing at the same velocity he was last year and the strikeouts are gradually coming back. He has stuck out 14 batters in his last 16.2 innings pitched and now has his K/9 rate over 7 batters per nine which is slightly above his career average.

It is apparent that Clay Buchholz doesn’t have his best stuff at the moment but he still makes a solid lower tier fantasy option. He is available in 30-60% of fantasy leagues.

Round Two Fits

The Tennessee ground game and the Jacksonville passing game received some much needed help in round two of the 2014 NFL draft.

Analysis: The Titans picked up running back Bishop Sankey in the second round. Sankey should get tons of carries this year with the aging and mediocre Shonn Greene coming off of yet another knee surgery. Keep in mind that the Tennessee offensive line ranks in the top third of the NFL and Jake Locker is developing into a solid quarterback which teams will have to respect. It will all depend on Sankey’s ADP but his fantasy future looks bright.

The Jags picked up wide outs Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in the second round. Lee is a fine athlete and may have a good career but too many brainwashed couch experts wanted him to go in the mid to late first round. If Lee had played his college ball in Iowa the hype just wouldn’t be there, period. Regardless, Lee could be on the end of 100 targets this coming season. However, Allen Robinson is the intriguing one here. He’s 6’2″ 220 pounds and has a 39 inch vertical to go along with great hands and exceptional body control. Outside of Cecil Shorts the Jags have nothing out wide so the Lee/Robinson training camp/preseason positional battle will be fun to monitor.

Round One Winners

Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks were the clear fantasy winners in the first round of the 2014 draft.

Analysis: Steve Smith, Ted Ginn and Brandon LaFell have all moved on and now Cam Newton has a shortage of aerial weapons. Greg Olsen is still in the mix but the addition of the 6’5″ 240 pound Kelvin Benjamin is most welcome. Yes, the Panthers are a run first team but Cam Newton has thrown for over 3,300 yards and recorded a passer rating north of 84 in each of his first three years in the league. Benjamin could be looking at a 60 reception, 900 yard, 7 touchdown rookie campaign with room for upside pending on how heavily targeted he is.

The Saints on the other hand attempted the fourth most passes in the NFL last year. Lance Moore is gone so it appears that Brandin Cooks will be the third passing option for Drew Brees behind Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham. The 5’10” Cooks ran a 4.33 40 at the combine(second overall) and also ran a 3.81 20 yard shuttle(first overall). Cooks has more natural playmaking ability than Kenny Stills and with Darren Sproles also gone Sean Payton is sure to find creative ways to get Cooks involved. Sproles recorded 71 receptions last year and Moore notched 37 in thirteen games… those receptions have to go somewhere.