Author: TJ Streett

Chavez Playing Well

The Oakland A’s are off to another solid start and a big reason why has been the play of Jesse Chavez.

Analysis: Jesse Chavez is thirty years old and has never pitched more than seventy innings in one season in the bigs. Through three starts this year Chavez is sporting a 1.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 22 strikeouts in 20.0 innings. He also has a 2.30 xFIP and an 11.0 K/BB ratio.

Who knows how well he will hold up as he goes deeper into the season but we cannot ignore his effectiveness early on. Chavez pitched 57.1 innings for the A’s last year in a relief role and had a 3.93 ERA and 3.83 xFIP to show for it. His cutter has been an absolute revelation since joining the A’s and he now has his one plus pitch to go along with his great command of the other three.

Currently, Jesse Chavez is available in 30-75% of fantasy leagues. He isn’t going to get the “wire hype” like teammate Scott Kazmir or even Tim Hudson(SF) but Chavez has been unhittable through 20 innings thus far this season.

Big Start For Lincecum

Tim Lincecum has his third start of the season Tuesday night against Josh Beckett and the Dodgers.

Analysis: Lincecum isn’t off to the best start but there is reason to be hopeful. Through two starts this year he has allowed 11 runs in 10.0 innings. But… he has 12 strikeouts to 1 walk in those 10.0 innings. His xFIP is 2.43 which indicates that he hasn’t been truly awful as one would suspect. Lincecum’s career HR/FB rate sits at 9.2% and it was 12.1% last season. This year his HR per FB rate is at 40%…. completely unsustainable.

The twenty-nine year old is losing velocity yearly but his changeup is still top notch and his slider remains a borderline plus pitch. Keep in mind that Lincecum did have a good year last year from a sabermetric point of view- 3.56 xFIP, 8.79 K/9 and 1.6 WAR.

Currently, Tim Lincecum  is available in 15-50% of fantasy leagues. Even if he gets lit up Tuesday night it still may be time to buy low. He’s striking batters out, limiting his walks and he’s throwing tons of first pitch strikes. It’s not time to give up on Timmy but it is a very big start for him Tuesday night.

What To Make Of Dozier?

Brian Dozier continues to be one inconsistent fantasy performer.

Analysis: The twenty-six year old has the tools but he has yet to put it all together. Last year he hit just .244 but he posted 18 bombs and 14 swipes. It appears that it may be more of the same this year. He’s hitting .182 this season with 4 home runs and 3 stolen bases through 11 games. His 4 home runs are tied for the most in the American League, his 3 stolen bases are good for third in the American League.

He’s never going to win any batting titles but his strikeout rate has to improve(26%). Dozier is quite capable of posting a 20/20 season but it will not matter if he cannot hit above what his career average is- .237. His BABIP is down so that has something to do with the low batting average but he should expect a heavy dose of off-speed stuff going forward which has been a weakness.

Currently, Brian Dozier is available in 7-15% of fantasy leagues. His raw tools will provide the numbers but his batting average may lead to his downfall in roto leagues.

Selling High- Adeiny

Adeiny Hechavarria’s stock is gaining some steam on the wire these days but it is time to sell.

Analysis: This is not the time of year to let batting average numbers be the single determining factor when picking up a player on the wire. Adeiny Hechavarria is batting .350 this season through ten games with 0 home runs and 1 steal. Adeiny hit .227 last year with a .072 Isolated Power. He also hit just 3 home runs and stole 11 bases in 148 games. This isn’t a fantasy player(even if he is a shortstop) that is going to produce consistently.

Adeiny never hit particularly well in the minors without ridiculous BABIP numbers. He doesn’t have the power at this point in his career(it will come) and keep in mind he was caught stealing 10 times last year in 21 attempts. Fast forward to this year and we have another red flag- Adeiny has 0 walks in 40 at bats.

Currently, Adeiny Hechavarria is available in 50-70% of fantasy leagues. Pass or sell… just don’t have him on your fantasy squad.

Aoki Heating Up

Norichika Aoki had a brief but slow start to the season but he is officially heating up now.

Analysis: It seems that about this time every year you have more than a handful of impatient fantasy owners dropping proven commodities. This year is not any different. Aoki started the season 0 for 9 and to some owners only two games were enough and dropping Aoki seemed like the “smart move.” He has since gone 9 for 16 from the plate and raised his batting average to .360.

We have really gone downhill if we are dropping proven fantasy assets after two games. In Aoki’s first two seasons he has averaged 25 steals, 9 home runs, 81 runs and a .287 batting average. Aoki was the 38th best fantasy outfielder last year… ahead of guys like Ben Zobrist, Austin Jackson, Denard Span, Ben Revere, Michael Bourn, Colby Rasmus, Giancarlo Stanton, Nick Swisher and Bryce Harper. Aoki is a lock for a great batting average and a solid amount of runs. He supplies more than enough in other categories yet he still doesn’t get any love.

Aoki is now available in 10-25% of fantasy leagues.