Author: TJ Streett

Solid Catchers Still Available

Catchers are almost always overlooked in fantasy baseball but they can provide valuable production.

Analysis: Russell Martin now has 6 home runs this year which is fourth among major league catchers while his 13 runs scored rank third among catchers. Martin has also averaged 7 stolen bases over the last three years so he will contribute a bit in the steals department. Currently, Martin is the sixth ranked roto catcher ahead of some big time names. The long time Dodger and former Yankee is available in 50-70% of leagues nationwide.

Another interesting option especially in deeper leagues is Salvador Perez. He’s still just twenty-two years old but he has tons of potential. He hit .301 with 11 bombs last year for the Royals in just 76 games. He’s hit for a high average throughout his minor league career and he’s poised to become a fantasy force soon. His 20.2% strikeout rate this year is concerning considering his highest K rate in the minors was just 12%. This year Perez is hitting a respectable .278 with 1 home run but he has to see more pitches/walk more(1 BB in 90 AB). His power should surface, expect at least ten homers by season’s end. His stock has been taking a hit recently but he does have 8 hits over his last seven games.

Buying Low- Aoki

Norichika Aoki’s batting average has dipped 100 points over the past two weeks but he remains a solid fantasy outfielder.

Analysis: Aoki is batting .250 this year but considering his BABIP is sitting in the .250 range it isn’t that bad. His walk rate is up from last year, his strikeouts are down and he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone this year(16.8%). His strikeout rate of 7.5% does really stand out, it ranks sixth in baseball among qualified batters. This is a recipe for success and Aoki’s batting average will reap the benefits eventually.

We cannot ignore that Aoki has 3 home runs, 4 stolen bases and 14 runs scored in the month of April. He continues to lead off in front of Jean Segura and Ryan Braun… so things could be worse for a guy who has been a bit unlucky over the last few weeks in regards to his BABIP. As it stands now Aoki has been dropped in 10-15% of leagues across the country but patience in this case is required. He’s not struggling at the plate and he’s still producing… so why is he being dropped?

This is where fantasy baseball is these days- Aoki is being dropped while guys like Endy Chavez and David DeJesus are being picked up.

Selling High- Nate McLouth

Nate McLouth notched his first home run of the year Saturday afternoon in Oakland.

Analysis: The thirty-one year old Baltimore outfielder is now hitting .319 this year. He has also recorded 7 stolen bases which rank second in all of baseball. It seems as though everything is going right for McLouth as his stock rises but there are concerns. McLouth is a career .249 hitter who has hit above .270 just once in his career(2008). His BABIP this year is 60 points above his career average so we should expect his batting average to dip sooner than later.

To McLouth’s credit he is walking at a higher clip and striking out less this year when compared to last year and even his career averages. Yes, McLouth will provide a solid amount of steals and runs going forward but we must also consider his injury history- he has not played in over 100 games in a season in over three years. It really is a mixed bag with McLouth but as it stands now he is available in 70% of leagues nationwide. Just don’t be surprised when his batting average dips and his run production takes a hit because he’ll be hitting further down in the Baltimore batting order.

Bartolo Watch

Bartolo Colon recorded his third win of the season Tuesday against the Boston Red Sox.

Analysis: Bartolo Colon has made four starts and has pitched 26.0 innings this year yet he has only walked one batter… one batter! That is great for the WHIP in roto leagues and he’s sporting a 0.92 WHIP this year(1.21 in 2012). His 0.35 BB/9 should not come as a surprise, he posted a 1.36 BB/9 mark last year over 150 plus innings.

Colon does have a 5.88 K/9 rate this year but you’re not picking him up for his strikeouts. The wins are hard to project as well but picking up Colon means having an innings eater in roto leagues that can help your ratios. His ERA this year is 2.42 with a 2.82 FIP while last year he sported a 3.43 ERA with a 3.82 FIP. His ERA will bump up some considering his strand rate is 8% above his career average thus far this year. Regardless, his ERA and WHIP seem stable enough to provide value yet he’s only owned in 2-35% of fantasy leagues. He’s pitching in a great park and locating his fastball… what more do you want from a lower tier fantasy starter?

Sticking With Adam Dunn?

Adam Dunn is struggling as much as anyone in baseball over the past few weeks and now is the perfect time to pick him up off the wire.

Analysis: Adam Dunn is struggling to the tune of a .098 batting average. His strikeout rate in on par with his past few erratic seasons, however, his walk rate is down 10% this year through sixteen games. Obviously Dunn’s batting average will hurt in roto leagues… he is a career .239 hitter, but in points leagues and deeper roto leagues Dunn’s power can be quite valuable. He hit 41 home runs last year and drove in 96 runs. Despite his early season struggles he is still projected to hit 25-30 home runs this year.

Dunn is available in about 50% of fantasy leagues for two simple reasons- his walk rate is down and his BABIP is down .170 points from his career average and down .130 points from last year. His dreadful BABIP is unsustainable and his batting average will rise. Dunn is getting every chance to succeed because he’s still hitting in the heart of the White Sox batting order. We also cannot forget that Dunn has went on awful stretches in the past and his power always seems to be there for you by season’s end.