Author: TJ Streett

Buying Low- Pedro Alvarez

Pedro Alvarez recorded his first home run of the season Thursday against the Atlanta Braves. He is currently hitting .104 this season with a .204 OBP.

Analysis: Pedro Alvarez is already available in half of fantasy leagues due to his poor start. This is just another example of impatient fantasy owners making mistakes early on. Alvarez hit 30 home runs with 85 RBI in 2012. This year he isn’t seeing many fastballs, very similar to what Ryan Howard had to endure a few years ago. Alvarez will pull through and when his power resurfaces expect home runs in bunches.

I understand that many owners are concerned with his slow start but history is on his side. At this point last season Alvarez only had 2 home runs and 2 RBI to go along with a .107 batting average. Also at this point last season Alvarez was available in over 95% of leagues and he finished as the 16th rated roto third baseman and 22nd in all of baseball with 30 bombs. Just like Alfonso Soriano you have to be patient with him.

Placido Polanco and Josh Donaldson are fine options in deeper leagues at third but not at the expense of Alvarez.

Deep League Help- Pena

Chris Carter isn’t the only power hitter on the Astros making some noise early on. Carlos Pena has been splitting time between first base and DH and his game seems to be back on track.

Analysis: It is good to see Chris Carter finally get some love but it did take over two weeks into the season for it to manifest. He’s only available in about 50% of leagues which is still a surprise since he could/should get to 30 home runs this year. Remember, hit he 16 bombs in just 67 games last year with Oakland.

As for Carlos Pena, well… he has kind of faded in recent years and some of it has to do with his BABIP. Pena’s career BABIP is .277 but he’s only averaged .251 over the last three years in Tampa and Chicago. His power is still there, he’s averaged exactly 25 home runs from 2010-2012. But the solid power numbers don’t mean much with a batting average well below the Mendoza Line. Flash forward to 2013 and Pena’s BABIP is up and with it his batting average. Pena has homered in consecutive days and has 9 runs in 15 games this year. He’s available in 90-99% of leagues and should have DH eligibility soon.

 

Selling High- Jose Fernandez

Miami starting pitcher Jose Fernandez is a twenty year old force of nature but it’s selling time for fantasy owners.

Analysis: Through two starts Fernandez has posted a 0.82 ERA in 11.0 innings pitched with 13 strikeouts and allowing just 5 hits and 3 walks. Fernandez is just twenty but he has elite tier stuff. His fastball averages 94.8 MPH thus far and he also has a plus slider and a solid curve and change. But now we must consider what he’s up against.

Over the last ten years only four pitchers aged twenty or younger have pitched over 130 innings. Of those four pitchers only King Felix recorded an xFIP under 4.25. We must also consider what Jose has done in the minors. He hasn’t pitched in anything above Advanced-A ball which he did last year for 55 innings. He only pitched 134 innings in 2012 and he shouldn’t be pushed much beyond 150 in 2013 if he stays healthy. Miami will be awful this year and he is the future so there is no reason to send him out there thirty plus times.

Fernandez is available in 20-30% of fantasy leagues. If you have him or can pick him up it’s selling time. There is always one owner in every league who falls in love with the idea of what a guy like Fernandez can do as opposed to the reality of the facts.

Last Call On Jean Segura

Jean Segura is the 11th rated roto shortstop so far this year and there is room for improvement.

Analysis: Segura’s value thus far is heavily influenced by his .458 batting average which is obviously unsustainable. But keep in mind that he hit .304 in Double-A last year between the Angels and the Brewers. His batting average will be a plus this year especially considering his strikeout rate has been low throughout his minor league and major league career.

A huge fantasy strength for Segura is his legs yet he has not stolen a base yet this year. He stole 37 bags last year in 102 Double-A games and expect over 20 stolen bases this year if he can stay healthy. He does have some pop but the home runs and RBI won’t be anything special in 2013. If he can find his way into the two-spot in the Brewers’ batting order his run total could be another fantasy asset.

Jean Segura is available in 35-70% of fantasy leagues which is surprising considering the lack of depth at shortstop year to year in fantasy baseball.

It’s Not Time To Bail

Alfonso Soriano is having yet another below average April and many fantasy owners are dropping the slugger in their leagues.

Analysis: Soriano had zero home runs in the month of April last year… he ended up with 32 home runs which was fourteenth most in all of baseball. This year through seven games Soriano is again without a home run and also has zero RBI. I understand that he’s now thirty-seven years old but he is a must own regardless of age or a slump. He’s a power bat with a good track record hitting cleanup on a big league team… you’d have to be nuts to drop him from your fantasy squad right now.

Yet plenty of people are bailing on Alfonso Soriano just one week into the season. He’s available in 5-30% of fantasy leagues so grab him now before he goes on one of his streaks. The only valid concern with Soriano at this point is his strikeout rate. If it’s still over 30% by the end of May it might not be his year but are you willing to take that chance by bailing on him so early?