Author: TJ Streett

ADP Watch- Trent Richardson

Trent Richardson is the ninth back being taken off the board in standard league mock drafts. His 13.9 ADP is extremely high at this point.

Analysis: Trent Richardson is one impressive back but the stats do not lie when it comes to projecting his numbers this year. The Steelers, Ravens and Bengals’ defenses all finished in the top ten in the NFL last year in rushing yards allowed per game. All three divisional rivals also finished in the top ten in yards per carry against. Add those impressive defenses to a shaky quarterback situation in Cleveland and you have yourself one modest fantasy rookie. Yet many experts want to annoint Richardson as a RB1 but he is just not there yet by no fault of his own of course.

Richardson very well may win offensive rookie of the year this year but RB1 numbers will not be his. Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson are being drafted after Richardson at the moment and smart fantasy owners love this. Michael Turner has rushed for over 1,300 yards and at least 11 TDs each of the past two years and he is the nineteenth back being taken off the board. Is anyone really buying Mike Smith’s comment that Turner will not get 300 touches this year?

ADP Watch- Ray Rice

Ray Rice is the third running back being taken off the board on average in standard league mock drafts as of Friday the third of August.

Analysis: Ray Rice may be one of the finest backs in the league but he should experience a bit of a drop off in production this year. The Ravens’ passing game and Joe Flacco are developing with the young talent around them. Torrey Smith appears to be a Mike Wallace type of playmaker while tight end Ed Dickson will have his break out season this year. Aside from the improving passing game taking a few touches away from Rice here and there, we must consider the primary reason his numbers will take a hit this year.

Terrell Suggs was the defensive player of the year last year and the loss of his play for most if not all of the season will cost Rice dearly. The Ravens defense will not be getting off of the field nearly as fast and as often as they would with Suggs playing. Fourteen sacks, seven forced fumbles and two picks is impossible to replace. Rice had at least 360 touches per season over the past two years but do not expect that to continue in 2012.

 

Mike Minor Is Surging

Despite a 5.18 ERA, Mike Minor is one of the hottest starting pitchers in the National League.

Analysis: Mike Minor has not allowed more than two earned runs in a start over his last four starts. He is also averaging just one walked batter per start during this hot streak. His ERA may not be ideal but he has put together a few very solid weeks here. His 1.29 WHIP is very respectable in roto leagues while his 7.81 K/9 is more than enough as well.

Minor is available in over half of fantasy leagues primarily because his five plus ERA scares many owners. His xFIP is sitting at 4.41 which is not all that bad considering his previous struggles. Minor is not a high velocity starter but he does have four quality pitches and when he is locating he gets results like we have been seeing over the past few weeks. Picking the lefty up can be a gamble but it just may be worth it. His walks are extremely low and his WHIP is solid, you just have to hope the wins and run support will be there for him.

Last Call On Chris Davis

Baltimore’s Chris Davis is one of the few power bats left on the wire as the fantasy baseball season is nearing the home stretch.

Analysis: Chris Davis has hit three home runs in his last six games to bring his season total up to eighteen bombs. Davis is available in about forty percent of fantasy leagues so pick him up before it is too late. The biggest benefit of having a guy like Davis on your squad is multi position eligibility. Chris Davis is eligible at first base, at third base and the outfield. His fifty-three RBI in just ninety games played is just another example of the under the radar production that Davis is capable of.

The trade deadline can see many ballplayers hyped but Davis remains a solid power bat who will not murder your batting average in roto leagues like a Carlos Pena type of hitter. Davis could stand to lower the strikeouts and draw more walks but he is who he is… a modern day slugger. With multiple position eligibility and protection from Adam Jones it is last call on Chris Davis.

Jayson Werth’s Return Near

Washington National’s outfielder Jayson Werth is several games in to his return with minor league clubs Potomac and Syracuse.

Analysis: Jayson Werth may not be worth the money that the Nationals spent on him but he will produce when healthy. He’s in a lineup with Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper and Michael Morse, so the RBI opportunities with be plenty. Werth is expected to make his return at some point next week so now is the time to be vigilant on the wire. Werth is available in over half of fantasy leagues which is a big shock considering he is a solid power bat. Manager Davey Johnson has hinted that Werth may be splitting time with Harper out in center field but they pay him too much money to sit on the bench. Werth most likely will push Harper to center and find a home for himself back in right field.

For those on the fence concerning Werth’s fantasy value, keep in mind that he has averaged 25 home runs and 18 stolen bases over the past four years. He’s not going to win any batting titles but his OBP and slugging percentage is very good outside of a down 2011 season.