Author: TJ Streett

ADP Watch- Mikel Leshoure

With Jahvid Best on the PUP list, Mikel Leshoure just may get his chance to carry the bulk of the load for the Detroit ground game.

Analysis: While Kevin Smith may be ahead of Mikel Leshoure on the depth chart, Leshoure will finish the season as the more productive back. Leshoure is a 227 pound power back in the mould of a Rashard Mendenhall. He’s in a similar situation to Houston’s second round pick Ben Tate who was injured in his rookie season only to burst onto the scene in 2011. Like Tate, Leshoure is a second round pick who missed his rookie year and like Tate he has first round talent. After Leshoure is to serve his two game suspension to begin the season, expect the bulk of short yardage carries and the ever important goal line touches to go to Leshoure over Kevin Smith. Smith is a fine low end PPR back this year but the Detroit tail back situation is rather murky and needs to be monitored to ensure a solid draft.

Leshoure is actually going undrafted in many leagues but the earliest he is going is as the 48th back around picks 120-130. If he stays healthy he’s a great under the radar sleeper who will certainly outperform his ADP.

ADP Watch- Mike Williams

With Vincent Jackson signing a five year deal with the Tampa Bay Bucs, Mike Williams’ fantasy value is in question.

Analysis: Mike Williams did have a down year in 2011 but Josh Freeman’s dip in play was more to blame. Williams was targeted 124 times in 2011, fourteenth most in the NFL. Even with Jackson in the mix Williams is still good for 100 targets this year. He caught 65 balls for 771 yards in his second year and as a rookie he caught 65 balls for 964 yards. The biggest difference was the three touchdowns last year to the eleven in his rookie year. Most people want to blame Williams but take a look at Josh Freeman’s numbers- 2010- 25 TD, 6 INT while in 2011- 16 TD, 22 INT. Freeman has ball security issues which also include 27 total fumbles over the past three seasons. With Kellen Winslow gone, Mike Williams is far and away the second option in the Tampa passing game this year which will improve… Josh Freeman isn’t an awful quarterback. Vincent Jackson will get his share but to expect just three touchdowns from Williams again in 2012 is a joke.

At the moment Williams is the 45th to 49th wide out being taken off the board with an ADP in the 120-150 range. On talent alone he is certainly worth a gamble at his ADP and he has tons of upside unlike Laurent Robinson and Randall Cobb who are in his ADP range.

ADP Watch- Darren McFadden

In most leagues Darren McFadden is the fifth back being taken off the board, but in ESPN leagues he is the tenth back.

Analysis: Obviously many, many clueless people play fantasy football through ESPN. Keep in mind that Darren McFadden was going to lead the league in rushing yards last year prior to his injury in week seven. With McFadden this year we have what Matthew Stafford was last year… a great player but injury prone. McFadden should not slip out of the top five to six backs unless he tweaks something in the preseason. His 5.2 yards per carry in 2010 and 5.4 yards per carry in 2011 was fifth and third respectively among backs with at least 100 carries those seasons. He is an absolute game breaker who is going as the fifth back and ninth overall pick on average in leagues across the country.

The ESPN ADP of 24.6 is shocking but when ESPN ranks a back the eleventh best the sheep have trouble forming an opinion for themselves. McFadden finished 2011 as the thirty-fourth back in standard leagues despite missing nine games and having two carries in a week seven contest. That’s right… he put up RB3 numbers last year in six games and change. McFadden is at the point in his career where he could miss four games and still outperform his 24.6 ADP in ESPN leagues. If you are willing to gamble a bit, Darren McFadden just may follow in Matthew Stafford’s footsteps this year.

ADP Watch- Alex Smith

Alex Smith is going as high as the fifteenth quartback being taken in standard league drafts.

Analysis: The Niners added plenty of talent on the outside for Alex Smith this offseason but there are plenty of causes for concern. Aside from the modest seventeen touchdown passes in sixteen games, Smith is extremely over hyped this year. He was sacked forty-four times last year, most in the NFL. Smith also fumbled seven times and did not average 200 passing yards per game last year. Tarvaris Jackson actually passed for more yards per game than Smith did last season. We also have to consider that the level of play will be much improved in the NFC West this coming year.

Yes, Alex Smith did just barely outscore Joe Flacco in 2011 but can we really count on him to repeat his five interception performance again? Smith did not throw for 300 yards in a game last year, so we cannot count on spot starting him outside of bye weeks. Flacco tossed for over 300 yards against the Steeler and Texan defenses last year. With Flacco you just have that feeling that if Vick or Newton gets injured he would not cost you a fantasy title like Smith may. Backup fantasy quarterbacks are important and in this case you have to pass on Smith with an ADP in the 110-120 range.

ADP Watch- Jeremy Maclin

Despite missing three games last year, Jeremy Maclin was still a top thirty wide out in standard leagues.

Analysis: Jeremy Maclin is the twenty-first to twenty-third wide out being taken off the board in standard league drafts. His 53-64 average draft position is shocking considering he was a borderline WR1 heading into the 2011 season last year. Pound for pound he is Philly’s best wide out. His fifteen receiving touchdowns over the past two years is five more than DeSean Jackson’s total. Maclin also has twenty-eight more receptions over the past two seasons as well, yet both Philly receivers have similar average draft positions in both standard and PPR leagues.

Maclin runs better routes and has better hands than the flashy Jackson who did not have even one kick/punt return for a score last year. Keep in mind that Jackson is a paid man, so who does not question his motivation to be an elite wide out at this point? Maclin is clearly a solid pick at his ADP and a wide out with legit WR1 upside. Antonio Brown and Percy Harvin have a similar ADP but they do not offer WR1 potential like Maclin.