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Jimmy Graham Is Undervalued

Jimmy Graham is being taken as the twelfth tight end off the board in standard ESPN leagues right now.

Analysis: New Orleans’ tight end Jimmy Graham turned it on late last year with five touchdowns in his final eight games. Now, fast forward to this season with Jeremy Shockey in Carolina and you have a tight end with some serious upside. Considering Saint tight ends were targeted 151 times last year and Shockey accounted for fifty-nine of those targets, Graham will be one of the more heavily targeted tight ends in the leagues this year. Greg Olsen is the tenth tight end being taken off the board in ESPN drafts right now and when considering he’s coming off of a 404 yard season with four scores it’s just ridiculous. Olsen may also be in Carolina but with the lack of a relaiable quarterback you have to wonder if he’ll even have a remotely productive season. I’m not saying Graham is a top eight tight end who will reach pay dirt double digit times this year but the amount of targets that will be coming his way with all the weapons on that Saint offense- it sure seems to point to Graham being a legit low tier TE1 heading into the 2011 season.

Ricky Williams Has Value

Ricky Williams has signed with the Ravens and in doing so may have more value than Willis McGahee did for Baltimore from 2009-2010.

Analysis: Considering Ray Rice was on the end of 370 touches last year and 332 touches in 2009, owning Ricky Williams as insurance is an intelligent play this year. Williams may be thirty-four years old but the veteran has only had one 200 carry season since 2003. Williams has also averaged over four yards per carry in each of his last three seasons, not bad for back in his thirties. Ray Rice may or may not be due for an injury with all the touches he has been on the end of, but when considering Willis McGahee scored twenty touchdowns as the Ravens’ backup in the last two years to a healthy Rice, Ricky Williams looks like steal at his ADP. Williams’ ADP is 152 and he’s the fifty-seventh back being taken off the board right now. He may not be a RB3 but he will score plenty of touchdowns and would serve as a solid recplacement should Rice get banged up. Either way, at pick 152 Ricky Williams is a steal.

Value Up- Jahvid Best

Detroit rookie running back Mikel Leshoure tore his left Achilles tendon Monday at practice. With Leshoure set to be Detroit’s 1-B option in the backfield it now appears Jahvid Best may be getting a few more touches this season.

Analysis: The 230 pound Mikel Leshoure was going to receive the bulk of the goal line carries this year but with the injury we may see second year back Jahvid Best a bit more involved in short yardage situations. Yes, backs like Mike Bell and Laurence Maroney may still be available but they do not possess the kind of explosiveness the Lions were counting on this year in goal line situations. Despite a relatively disappointing rookie campaign plagued by turf toe, Best still managed 58 receptions and over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and is now primed to set the league on fire. With the Leshoure injury we’ll see a bit more of Best in the Detroit ground game and on goal line carries. Best’s ADP in PPR leagues right now is in the 36-40 range but do not expect for him to be around by then on draft day in intelligent leagues.

Projection: Sixty receptions is a possibility for Best this year and so is 1,500 yards from scrimmage. If he stays healthy he doesn’t disappoint as a RB2 in PPR leagues.

Moreno and McGahee Fantasy Value

Being lost in the Kyle Orton/Tim Tebow starting quarterback drama is the Denver running back situation.

Analysis: We only know a few things about Knowshon Moreno- he wasn’t worth a first round pick and he has done nothing to “wow” anyone in his first two years in the NFL. Enter Willis McGahee and his one year deal with Denver and you have some serious issues concerning Moreno’s fantasy value. Moreno’s ADP in standard leagues is at 43 and he’s the nineteenth running back being taken off the board. When considering a RB2 you want a solid source of touchdowns and Moreno has averaged 8.5 total touchdowns per year for his career. But when the twenty-nine year old 235 pound power back Willis McGahee enters the Denver backfield, Moreno’s goal line touches with decrease dramatically. Despite only carrying the rock an average of 104 times the last two years in Baltimore, McGahee still averaged a staggering ten total touchdowns per year. So at this point it is clear Moreno just doesn’t seem like a smart pick as the nineteenth best fantasy back. In standard leagues go with Ryan Mathews or DeAngelo Williams.

Don’t Even Think About Braylon

With the ink still wet from Braylon Edwards’ one year deal with the Niners- his fantasy value is now next to nothing.

Analysis: Braylon Edwards has went from a very solid depth wide out for your fantasy squad to worthless. Edwards had a decent year with the Jets in 2010, amassing 904 yards with seven scores. Now, with Alex Smith as his quarterback all hope for Edwards is lost for the 2011 season. Smith brings so much to the table- his 72.1 career passer rating, his 51 TD to 53 INT ratio and of course the fact that he’s never thrown for 3,000 yards or twenty touchdowns in a year. We also cannot ignore that Vernon Davis is still Smith’s go-to-guy and Michael Crabtree is a good wide out despite his numbers. At this point depth wide outs in Edwards’ ADP range that do have some upside include Mike Walker and Lance Moore. Edwards may be one of the more electrifying receivers in the NFL at times but he’s playing with a JV quarterback. Even if Michael Crabtree’s left foot is a severe injury which it doesn’t appear to be, don’t even think about Braylon come draft day.