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Value Down- AJ Green

With rookie quarterback Andy Dalton at the helm of the Cincy offense, AJ Green’s 2011 season has disappointment written all over it.

Analysis: AJ Green’s ADP has been in the 87-97 range as about the 32nd wide out being taken off the board. Last year wide outs in standard leagues had to put up about 750 yards with six scores just to be a top 30-35 wide out. At Green’s ADP does he offer any upside? Well, with Andy Dalton at quarterback- absolutely not. Dalton thus far in the preseason is 19-34 with three picks and zero touchdowns. He has a quarterback rating of 30.9 and is also averaging just 4.6 yards per pass attempt. To put it in perspective, Jimmy Clausen averaged 5.2 yards per attempt last year. Andy Dalton would have to play some pretty special football to give AJ Green the numbers to make his draft position worthwhile. Wide outs like Mike Thomas, Mike Walker and Malcom Floyd make the most sense at this point in a draft and can be had a bit later on in most cases. Do not trust any Bengal receiver or tight end until Andy Dalton proves otherwise. Green is a great talent and will one day become a WR1 in all formats, however, this year he offers no upside at all.

What To Expect From Beanie Wells

With rookie running back Ryan Williams potentially out for the season with a right knee injury it’s time to assess Beanie Wells’ fantasy value.

Analysis: With Tim Hightower now on the Redskins roster and Ryan Williams potentially gone for the season, Beanie Wells just may put up RB2 numbers this year. Still, it’s hard to trust Wells considering his dismal 3.4 yards per carry average last year on just 116 carries. Wells has not carried the ball 200 times in a season in his young career and he offers next to nothing in the reception department for PPR leagues. However, there is not a back nearly as talented as Wells on the roster and a potential 1,000 rushing yard season is likely. Considering there is a threat of an air attack this year in Arizona, there will not be eight men in the box as much as there was last year for their offense. Beanie will also have a monopoly on the goal line carries and that could mean a double digit touchdown season. It’s hard to trust Beanie at this point but if he can stay healthy he can put up RB2 numbers and you can get him at his respectable ADP in the 75-85 range.

Overrated- Cedric Benson

Cedric Benson is being taken as the 25th back off the board in fantasy drafts but taking him as a borderline RB2/RB3 is a huge mistake.

Analysis: Cedric Benson fumbled the ball seven times last year, losing five of them- that’s not what you want from a “reliable” fantasy back. Benson also carried the ball 321 times last year yet his longest rush was only twenty-six yards. We also have to consider that in two of the last three years he’s avergaed just 3.5 yards per carry and he’s caught more than twenty balls just once in his career. At this point in his career it does not appear that Cedric Benson is improving in any facet of his game.

Rookie Andy Dalton will not keep that eighth man out of the box like Carson Palmer could and the slow Benson may have even more problems breaking off long runs. The problem with Benson is you do not want him as your RB2 but you’ll waste a pick drafting him early as your RB3. Consider BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Daniel Thomas at this point in your fantasy draft, certainly not Cedric Benson. Also, a back like CJ Spiller offers more upside fifty picks later.

Undervalued- Mario Manningham

With the injured Steve Smith signing with the Eagles, Mario Manningham’s 2011 season looks that much better.

Analysis: Manningham caught sixty balls last year for 944 yards and nine scores. Manningham only officially started in eight games, which makes it that much more impressive. As much as everyone calls the Giants a running team they passed the ball 539 times last year and Manningham was targeted ninety-two times despite sharing time with Steve Smith through week nine. 110 targets is a likely projection for Mannngham in 2011 even though Hakeem Nicks is the stud on the roster. Manningham’s ADP is in the 64-70 range and he’s being selected as the twenty-fifth wide out off the board. Considering Austin Collie is one big hit away from retirement and Anquan Boldin just isn’t the same wide out he was in Arizona, taking Manningham as a low tier WR2/stud WR3 is a smart play at this point in fantasy drafts. Can Steve Johnson be trusted? Will Julio Jones get enough red zone targets? There are a ton of questions with other wide outs around Manningham’s ADP but Manningham is one of only a few that can be trusted this deep into a draft.

Projection: 1,000 yards and eight scores is what to expect from Manningham in 2011.

98 ADP- Matthew Stafford Is A Bargain

After a solid 6 for 7, two touchdown performance in his first preseason game, Matthew Stafford has hit the ground running in 2011. With an ADP of 98 he sure seems like a bargain.

Analysis: We cannot forget that Matthew Stafford in 2010 threw six touchdowns to just one interception in three games. Stafford’s completion percentage was around the sixty percent mark as the young talent continues to develop on the Lions offense. Stafford is being taken as the thirteenth quarterback off the board and that is a bargain. Streaming Stafford with an Eli Manning or a Josh Freeman instead of taking an elite quarterback can be effective this year. Stafford has QB1 potential but due to injuries he hasn’t quite been able to prove himself. We all love Calvin Johnson but we cannot ignore how good Brandon Pettigrew is. Pettigrew is just twenty-six years old and last year was a solid campaign that included 71 receptions for 722 yards. Jahvid Best recorded 58 receptions as a rookie back and has the potential for much more.

The only concern when drafting Stafford will be his health. If he plays every game he will put up QB1 numbers, period. Whatever happens- a Shaun Hill insurance pick seems like the smart thing to do late in a draft.